Here's What to Know as Raptors Enter NBA Draft Lottery With 13th-Best Odds

The Toronto Raptors will enter the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday with a 1% chance to land Victor Wembanyama

Aaron Rose | May 16, 2023

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Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors are hoping Tuesday night will be record-setting when the ping-pong balls start popping at the NBA Draft Lottery.

Never in the history of the NBA has a team moved up 13 spots in the lottery. Twice teams have moved up 10 spots, once in 1999 when Charlotte jumped from 13th to No. 3, eventually selecting Baron Davis, and again in 1993 when Orlando Magic moved from 11th to No. 1 to snag Chris Webber.

What does precedent mean now?

Absolutely nothing this time around.

Toronto will enter the draft lottery with the 13th-best odds to move up in the draft. The Raptors will therefore have a 1% chance to land Victor Wembanyama, a 1.11% to land the No. 2 pick, a 1.25% chance to land the No. 3 pick, and a 1.42% chance to land the No. 4 pick. Together, Toronto has a 4.78% to move into the top four.

The Raptors should know their fate pretty early in the 8 p.m. ET lottery. There’s a 2.33% chance Toronto slides back in the draft and gets stuck with pick No. 14. The most-likely scenario with a 92.88% probability is Toronto stays put at No. 13.

Like in 2021, when Toronto moved up from No. 7 to No. 4, the Raptors will know they’ve won at least a top-four pick if someone else gets tabbed for the 13th pick. At which point, the waiting game will begin as Toronto can’t move up between No. 5 and No. 12.

Detroit, Houston, and San Antonio all have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick with a 14% probability each. Charlotte and Portland are at 12.5% and 10.5%, respectively.

Dallas’ pick is top-10 protected, meaning there’s a 79.79% chance the Mavericks keep their pick. If it falls outside of the top 10, that pick will be conveyed to New York.

Chicago’s pick is similarly top-four protected, meaning the Bulls have an 8.5% chance of keeping their pick otherwise it’ll be sent to Orlando.

Toronto will be represented on stage by general manager Bobby Webster. Vice President of Basketball Operations Teresa Resch will represent the team in the draft lottery room.

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