Raptors Odds to Keep 1st Round Pick as NBA's Midpoint Nears

The Toronto Raptors have the sixth-worst record in the NBA as the midpoint of the season nears and just a 43.8% chance to keep their first-round pick this year

The Toronto Raptors have nearly hit the midway point of the NBA season and that first-round pick they owe the San Antonio Spurs from last year’s trade deadline is looking pretty enticing.

If the season ended today, Toronto would have the sixth-worst record in the NBA, trailing only Detroit, San Antonio, Washington, Charlotte, and Portland, respectively. Considering there’s a 4.5-game gap between Toronto and Portland, it’s highly unlikely the Raptors fall any further down the standings.

With the sixth-worst record, Toronto would have the sixth-best odds in the NBA lottery this summer. That means the Raptors would have a 34.8% chance to land a top-four pick in the draft and a 43.8% chance to keep their top-six protected first-round pick either as a top-four pick or as the No. 6 pick. The team with the sixth-best lottery odds cannot earn the No. 5 pick as the NBA’s lottery rules only allow teams to move up into the top four.

No. 1	No. 2	No. 3	No. 4	No. 5	No. 6.	No. 7	No. 8	No. 9	No. 10
8.3%	8.6%	8.8%	9.1%	0%	8.6%	30.7%	21.7%	4%	0.2%

Should the Raptors not earn a top-six pick, there’s a 56.2% chance the pick falls between No. 7 and as low as No. 10 and is therefore conveyed to the Spurs as part of last year’s trade for Jakob Poeltl.

If the pick is not conveyed this year, the pick protections roll over through 2026 as a top-six protected pick. This essentially means the Raptors will have to convey that pick at some point in the next three seasons. If Toronto somehow does not convey in the next three drafts, the Raptors will send San Antonio two second-round picks in 2026 and 2027.

For Toronto, the Raptors are likely better off conveying the pick and moving on from the trade as it opens up more flexibility moving forward. This year’s draft is widely considered weaker than normal and therefore a lottery pick this year is expected to be less valuable than a lottery pick in the 2025 or 2026 drafts.