USATSI_17700098_168390270_lowres — Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

5 Stats That Will Dictate the Rest of the Raptors Season

The Toronto Raptors have defied all expectations this season and with the All-Star break coming to a close, here are five stats to keep an eye on

Author:
Aaron Rose
Publish date:
Feb 23, 2022 11:49 AM EST

At 32-25, the Toronto Raptors have blown past last year's win total and are entering the final stretch of the season right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The All-Star Break is now in the rearview mirror and here are the five stats that will dictate the rest of the season for Toronto.

Starters' Minutes: 34.8 Minutes

Nobody in the NBA relies more heavily on his starters than Raptors coach Nick Nurse. His starting lineup is averaging 34.8 minutes played per game this year, two minutes more than the Philadelphia 76ers who sit second in that category. For context, the difference between first and second in starters' minutes is as big as the difference between second and 14th.

Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are leading the league in minutes played per game at 38.4 and 37.8 minutes played, respectively. OG Anunoby isn't far behind at 36.7 minutes, the fifth most, and Gary Trent Jr. and Scottie Barnes are both in the top 25 in minutes played.

It's worked so far, but VanVleet was battling some aches and pains prior to the break and Siakam couldn't have been happier to get some time off. If the group can come back well-rested, the Raptors won't have any trouble riding their starters through the end of the season, but if VanVleet or Siakam are forced to miss extended time with an injury, the whole tower may come crumbling down.

Rebounding Rate: 30.9%/28.0%

The Raptors have this strange rebounding quirk this season as one of the league's premier offensive rebounding teams and one of the league's worst defensive rebounding teams. Their offensive rebounding rate of 30.9% ranks 2nd in the league while their defensive rebounding rate of 28% ranks 28th, per Cleaning the Glass. The dichotomy has come from Toronto's unusual willingness to crash the glass offensively in a league that has largely spurned offensive rebounding in favor of better transition defense. At the same time though, Toronto's lack of size has allowed the league's biggest centers to swallow offensive rebounds on the other end of the court, creating far too many second-chance opportunities for opposing teams. Against the right teams, the Raptors will have success, but how Toronto handles the league's biggest bigs will make or break the Raptors' season when the playoffs roll around.

Starting Lineup Games Together: 18 Games

The Raptors are 12-6 this season when VanVleet, Siakam, Barnes, Anunoby, and Trent are all healthy. Having battled through injuries and COVID-19 issues early in the year, this group has finally found its groove. Looking around the East, that harmony is not to be overlooked. Both the Brooklyn Nets and 76ers have totally reshaped their rosters on the fly this season, while the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat have battled non-stop injuries this year. If the Raptors can continue to stay healthy, these mid-season reps together will bode well for them in the playoffs.

Bench Scoring: 23 Points

For all the success Toronto's top five have had this season, the bench has been an unmitigated disaster this year. Toronto's reserves are averaging 23 points per game this season, the least in the NBA by 3.5 points per night. That's come while shooting 42.4% from the field and 29.0% from three-point range, the worst in the league.

The addition of Thad Young at the trade deadline should help a little bit, but Toronto's inability to add a floor-spacing guard or microwave scorer off the bench at the trade deadline could prove costly. Even if it's only in short spurts, the Raptors are going to need a little more from that group if they're going to keep their starters reasonably fresh for the playoffs.

Games Back of the 6th Seed: 0.5

It was just two weeks ago that the Raptors were sixth in the Eastern Conference on the heels of an eight-game winning streak. A lot, however, has changed since then as the Boston Celtics have jumped the Raptors by a half-game in the standings and the Nets — now with Ben Simmons and Kevin Durant returning — sit lurking in eighth. The Raptors want that sixth seed to avoid the play-in tournament, VanVleet has said as much, but that's not going to be easy. If Kyrie Irving is ever cleared to play home games this season, it'll be tough for Toronto to stay in front of Brooklyn, let alone the soaring Celtics. The Raptors should get some post-season basketball this year, but whether or not that's a true playoff spot could come down to avoiding the play-in tournament and a pair of potentially do-or-die games in April.