Fred VanVleet Has One of the Scariest Shots in the NBA

The Toronto Raptors are getting scary production from Fred VanVleet whose catch-and-shoot three-pointer is one of the most lethal shots in the NBA

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Fred VanVleet had one request earlier this week: Don't let anyone know how good he's been on catch-and-shoot three-pointers this season.

"Let’s keep that between us," he joked. "We’ve got more teams coming up."

Well, I'm sorry, Fred. I have to.

This season has been a tale of two parts for the Toronto Raptors and VanVleet. Early in the year, VanVleet was the focal point of the offense for Toronto. Pascal Siakam was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and the Raptors asked VanVleet to carry the load. During that stretch, the first 10 games of the season, 56% of VanVleet's shot attempts were pull-ups, those difficult off-the-dribble jumpers, usually in tight quarters. He shot 52% on two-point pull-ups and 31% on three-point pull-ups, the latter of which is just below league average. 

Then, on November 7, Siakam came back.

Since then, VanVleet has been able to move way more freely off the ball. Only 44.5% of his shots have been pull-ups since Siakam's return and VanVleet's catch-and-shoot numbers have taken off.

	Catch-and-shoot makes	Catch-and-shoot attempts	Percentage
Before Nov. 7	1.3	2.9	44.8%
Since Nov. 7	2.6	4.9	52.8%
Season	2.2	4.3	51.1%

That 51.1% catch-and-shoot rate is by far the best in the league. Only San Antonio's Keldon Johnson is anywhere close, shooting 48.6% on catch-and-shoot looks this season.

To contextualize how incredible that number is for VanVleet, consider that a VanVleet catch-and-shoot three-pointer this season generates about 1.53 points per attempt. That's 51.1% multiplied by three. A "Wide Open" Steph Curry three-pointer this season in which the closest defender is at least six feet away, per the NBA's tracking data, is converted at 42.7% and generates 1.28 points per attempt. LeBron James scores at a 75.8% clip within the restricted area, generating 1.52 points per attempt. Giannis Antetokounmpo shoots 75.3% within five feet of the rim, about 1.51 points per attempt.

"I think you recognize when you’re in rhythm and you just try to hold on as long as possible because it’s not always like that," VanVleet said Tuesday night.

Eventually, teams will adjust, as VanVleet knows. They'll start giving him the Curry treatment, chasing him around screens and pressuring him off-ball so he can't get those easy looks. When that happens, it'll open things up for Toronto on the inside, letting Siakam, Scottie Barnes, and OG Anunoby attack with a little less attention.

Further Reading

Pascal Siakam continues All-Star caliber stretch in victory over Bucks

Raptors keep going against the grain to put their stars in the best positions to succeed

Nick Nurse reveals Kawhi Leonard's secret to nailing The Shot