Fred VanVleet Said Next Contract Would be Based on Raptors Success, But Will It Be?

Fred VanVleet would probably like to have a do-over. It was a little over six months ago that the Toronto Raptors guard stood in the OVO practice facility and

Aaron Rose | Apr 20, 2023

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Toronto Raptors

Fred VanVleet would probably like to have a do-over.

It was a little over six months ago that the Toronto Raptors guard stood in the OVO practice facility and said his next contract would be tied to the team’s success this season. He wasn’t focused on the money, he said ahead of the team’s season opener against Cleveland. For him, if the team won, so would he.

“My individual success is pretty much based on how the team does,” VanVleet said at the time. “If we do well, that means I'm probably playing well, and the team is doing well.”

He was right.

VanVleet’s season wasn’t quite as bad as it probably seemed, but it also wasn’t exactly the contract-year campaign he had probably hoped for. He struggled to start the year and never really found his three-point stroke. That said, his numbers were virtually identical to his 2021-22 All-Star season with better playmaking numbers and improved two-point scoring.

The problem was far too many disaster nights that sunk Toronto. He was 0-for-11 in a 22-point loss to Philadelphia, 1-for-9 in a costly 11-point loss to Atlanta, 1-for-12 from three-point range in a four-point loss to Boston, and 3-for-15 in a disastrous loss to Indiana. To be fair, there were plenty of incredible games too, like his 36-point effort in a victory over Denver and his franchise record-setting 20-assist performance against Charlotte, and all the advanced metrics have him as a huge difference-maker for the Raptors.

FiveThirtyEight, for example, has him ranked eighth in the NBA in Wins Above Replacement and 18th in Total RAPTOR, their catch-all advanced metric. BBall-Index’s LEBRON metric similarly has VanVleet as the 20th-ranked player in the league, immediately ahead of Tyrese Haliburton, Paul George, and Domantas Sabonis.

But if wins are what VanVleet was going for, this season was a letdown.

Still, the 29-year-old is expected to opt out of his $22.8 million player option for next season, though he wouldn’t confirm that during his season-ending press conference. The expectation is he’ll get at least the four-year, $114 million max extension that he said he and the team mutually agreed not to sign during the season, and quite possibly a number pushing $30 million per year.

For the Raptors, VanVleet’s future with the team is complicated. Without an obvious replacement on the roster, nor cap space to sign a replacement, Toronto can’t afford to let VanVleet leave this summer for nothing. A sign-and-trade is possible and, if Raptors president Masai Ujiri’s post-trade deadline comments are to be believed, there’s a possibility Toronto could move VanVleet in a sign-and-trade for something similar to what was being offered at the deadline. However, nobody is going to give Toronto a player better than VanVleet in a VanVleet sign-and-trade. Rarely do sign-and-trades lead to much of a return at all.

The odds are VanVleet is going to be back with the Raptors next season. Even if signing an undersized guard in his late 20s to a long-term deal isn’t typically the best decision, Toronto doesn’t have a better option. The organization has let too many talented players walk for nothing in the past and with a dearth of guard players and floor-spacing on the roster, the Raptors need VanVleet.

The question is: How far will VanVleet and his agents at Klutch Sports push Toronto? VanVleet had said his contract would be tied to team success, but now he has all the leverage. Exercising that could prove painful.

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