Raptors May Face High-Risk, High-Reward Decision If Nick Smith Jr is Available at No. 13

The Toronto Raptors are going to have to do plenty of due diligence on Nick Smith Jr before selecting the Arkansas Razorbacks product in the NBA Draft

Aaron Rose | May 24, 2023

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

In this story:

There’s no sugarcoating it.

If Nick Smith Jr. is available at No. 13 when the Toronto Raptors make their first-round draft pick next month, it’ll be a disappointment. Smith had been the No. 1 prospect coming out of high school, according to 247Sports. He’d drawn comparisons to Jamal Murray with the kind of skill and athleticism that was supposed to go in the top four or five in this year’s NBA Draft.

Frankly, falling into the teens is unheard of for a No. 1 high school prospect. No top prospect has fallen lower than seven in the last decade and only Brandon Jennings, the No. 1 prospect in 2008, fell as low as No. 10 after opting to play overseas rather than join the college ranks.

And yet, Smith should be there late in the lottery when Toronto’s pick rolls around. Sports Illustrated even has Smith pegged to the Raptors in their latest mock draft.

Why?

In part because of a knee injury that limited Smith to just 17 games and 14 starts in his lone freshman season with the Razorbacks. He dealt with constant “right knee management” and never quite found a rhythm.

Those around Arkansas have raised questions about Smith’s injury. Was he seriously injured or was he trying to maintain his draft stock? He said at the NBA combined that he battled through two injuries during the year, but Razorback fans are skeptical.

“I’ve heard conflicting stories on all that stuff,” said Arkansas reporter Andy Hodges.

When Smith did play, he never quite looked right. He averaged 12.5 points on just 37.6% shooting from the floor. His 33.8% three-point stroke didn’t scream NBA prospect and his assist-to-turnover ratio was a pedestrian 1.7 assists to 1.6 turnovers per game.

“There were times he showed that he was very good at the college level,” Hodges said, acknowledging Smith’s five 20-plus point showings for Arkansas. “But he was a big disappointment on the floor for Razorback fans. He didn’t produce the results.”

It’s left questions surrounding Smith. Lots of them.

Watching Smith in warmups it’s clear he’s a first-round pick kind of athlete, Hodges said. He’s fluid and naturally athletic. He glides when he moves, Hodges noted. But when the lights came on last season, there was just something missing.

Smith averaged just 5.7 points across Arkansas’ three games in the NCAA tournament while shooting 6-for-23 from the floor. He was held scoreless in 16 minutes against Kansas in the second round of the tournament and was a defensive liability for the Razorbacks.

“He ain’t very good on defense at all. He does of olé stuff,” said Hodges gesturing like a matador letting a bull run by him. “Just go right ahead.”

But players with the upside of Smith don’t fall to the middle of the first round very often. He’s a high-risk, high-reward kind of prospect and it’s entirely possible that his knee injury led to his disappointing season in Arkansas.

Maybe in the right system with the right coach and the right development Smith could flourish into the kind of talent evaluators once saw him as becoming.

A few years ago, the Raptors were seen as that type of organization. They could take a risk on a prospect knowing that their culture was strong enough to absorb such a player. These days, though, that’s not exactly the case.

Toronto remains without a head coach with less than a month to go before the draft and culture, specifically the hard-working kind the Raptors used to be known for, was “lacking this year,” President Masai Ujiri said.

Answering the Smith question isn’t going to be easy. Toronto is desperately in need of the kind of playmaking and explosiveness Smith, in theory, should be able to provide. He could be a home run pick for a team that needs to hit a home run. That said, playing it a little safer may be the wiser decision.

Further Reading