Raptors-Pelicans Has All The Makings of a 3-Point Shootout

The Raptors will look for revenge against the New Orleans Pelicans in a game that has all the makings of a 3-point shootout
Raptors-Pelicans Has All The Makings of a 3-Point Shootout
Raptors-Pelicans Has All The Makings of a 3-Point Shootout /

Prepare for a shootout.

The last time the Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans played in the season opener last month Toronto took 46 3-pointers, draining 14 of them. It was an astounding start to the season for the Raptors who averaged just 37 3-point shots a game last season. The night marked a clear step toward a more 3-point oriented offence for Toronto this season. 

Since then, very little has changed for the Raptors' offence. They lead the NBA in 3-pointers taken, averaging 46 shots from behind the arc this season, five more per game than the Milwaukee Bucks who sit in second. In total, over 47% of the Raptors' shots this year have come from deep, according to Cleaning the Glass.

On the other side, the Pelicans have no problem surrendering 3-point shots. Much like the Raptors of last year, New Orleans has opted to sell out to defend the rim — where they allow the fifth-fewest shots per game — and are willing to live with opponents shooting from the outside. No team has surrendered more 3-pointers this season than the Pelicans who allow over 48% of their opponent's shot to come from behind the arc, per Cleaning the Glass.

When those two things combined it means there are probably going to be plenty of 3-pointers taken tonight. And that means shooting variance!

No shot in basketball is tougher to predict than the 3-point shot. Sometimes you'll shoot 38%, as the Raptors did against Philadelphia, and sometimes you'll shoot 30%, as the Raptors did against New Orleans. Those eight-point swings in shooting percentage from behind the arc can make a huge difference in the result of a game.

The good news for the Raptors so far is they've been getting really good 3-point shots. They average 25.5 "Wide Open" 3-point attempts per game, according to NBA Stats, the most in the league. The problem, however, is they're shooting just 38% on those shots in which the closest defender is over six feet away, a considerable drop off from the 41.1% they shot on "Wide Open" 3-pointers last year, per NBA Stats.

If Toronto continues to get those good, "Wide Open" looks, things should bounce back in their favour soon enough. The tough part is just predicting when. For Toronto to win tonight, they're likely going to need some 3-point luck on their side.

Gambling Tip: Kyle Lowry over 2.5 3-pointers made (This bet is no longer available)

I'm not a gambler, but this line seemed a little off to me. Kyle Lowry is +120 to hit 2.5 3-pointers tonight on DraftKings. He's hit three or more 3s in three out of four games this season including a 4-for-9 3-point shooting night against the Pelicans in the season opener. As we've established, the Pelicans give up a ton of 3-pointers and the Raptors are happy to take 3s. With that information, do as you please.


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Aaron Rose
AARON ROSE

Aaron Rose is a Toronto-based reporter covering the Toronto Raptors since 2020.