Nick Nurse Pinpoints the Issue With Fred VanVleet's 'Off-Kilter' Shooting Struggles

The Toronto Raptors think Fred VanVleet's shot is a little off-kilter these days and it's leading to the worst shooting slump of his career

Aaron Rose | Dec 6, 2022

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Let's start with this: 38% career three-point shooters don't suddenly forget how to shoot at 28 years old.

Fred VanVleet is not broken. He knows it. His teammates know it. Heck, even opposing teams know it. He is, however, in a funk, an extended one, and quite possibly the worst one of his career.

So what's wrong with the Toronto Raptors All-Star point guard who is shooting just 34% from behind the arc this season?

"His numbers on his right left [axis], his straightness are [normally] just off the charts and that is the one that's got a little off-kilter a little bit for him," Raptors coach Nick Nurse said following practice Tuesday morning. "It's a bit strange because that's one of those things that once you dial that in in your mechanics, that one doesn't leave you very often. No matter how tired you are, or how deep you're shooting, or whatever, you still get it to come off your hand the same way with some straightness and that's the one that has got a little bit of a wrinkle for him right now."

Part of the slump is how defenses are playing VanVleet who continues to garner respect as one of the league's top shooters. He's taking slightly fewer catch-and-shoot three-pointers this season as opposing teams run him off the line, forcing him to either move the ball or try to penetrate inside, a skill VanVleet has notoriously struggled with. His number of so-called 'Wide Open' three-pointers when the nearest defender is at least six feet away, per NBA Stats, has also dipped by nearly one attempt per game.

"I would say that there has been a lot of extra attention toward him," Nurse said. "Probably one of the better examples was Orlando the other night because we were in numerous sets for him where he was open, like normally open, and at some point either the last screener made a really hard switch out to his body, or the guy who was chasing him ... just sprint[ed] right to his body. So things that looked like they were going to be nice catch-and-shoots for him turned into get-off-the-ball things."

At the same time though, there's no sugarcoating it: VanVleet has to be better. He knows that too.

"Some of them are great looks, shots that I take. Some of them are a little more contested than it feels in the game when I go back and break the film down," he said. "It’s just one of those things, they’re not going in right now and I just need a spark to turn it around.

"I’m not really concerned about it. Obviously, nobody wants them to go in more than me, trust me. But it’s just the way it goes sometimes. So, just can’t get too high or too low with it. Just keeping working and try to find ways to get better."

His lack of shooting has certainly been problematic, but VanVleet isn't just a shooter. His assist-to-turnover ratio is the best of his career, he's still in the top 10 in steals per game, and ranks in the top 30 in assists points created, per NBA Stats. Toronto's offense also remains 2.8 points per 100 possessions better with VanVleet on the court compared to when he's sitting.

"Fred brings a lot of attention to himself as far as needing guys to double him," said 16-year-old NBA veteran Thad Young. "He’s a smart basketball player, he’s one of the best basketball players I’ve played with, one of the best minds I’ve played with, so, at the end of the day, if he’s not having the best game, it’s still better than what we’ve had on the court at any given time just for the simple fact he brings so much attention to him. It helps us out because now you have two guys guarding Fred and now you have two guys open on the court and he’s gonna make the right read or make the right play."

Eventually, this slump too will pass. The law of averages suggests his 793-for-2,078 three-point shooting coming into this season is a little more indicative of what's to come for VanVleet than his 50-for-147 three-point sample size this season.

For now, though, it's just a matter of getting in reps and rediscovering that stroke that made him one of the league's deadliest shooters just one season ago.

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