Playoff Probabilities: Where the Raptors Stand and What's Most Likely to Happen

Here's the Toronto Raptors' playoff picture as the Eastern Conference begins to take shape with four games remaining

Aaron Rose | Apr 4, 2022

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The Toronto Raptors' magic number to avoid the play-in tournament is now down to just two.

With four games remaining, the Raptors either need to split their final few games or have the Cleveland Cavaliers drop a game or two to clinch the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference and avoid a date with Trae Young or Kevin Durant to open the playoffs.

Right now, the worst Toronto can finish is eighth in the conference. It would require the Raptors to somehow lose all their remaining games and have a confluence of bad luck go against them. Basketball Reference puts the chances of it happening at 0.8%.

Conversely, the best Toronto can reach is the third seed or, more realistically, the fourth seed should the Philadelphia 76ers fall off down the stretch.

The most likely outcome for the Raptors right now is the fifth seed in the conference, according to Basketball Reference. Toronto currently sits tied with the Chicago Bulls who own the tie-breaker should it come to that, but the Bulls have been scuffling a bit lately and the Raptors' final four games are significantly easier than Chicago's.

Basketball Reference's playoff odds / Basketball Reference

Sunday's loss to the Miami Heat is going to make the fourth seed pretty tough to reach, but that April 7 game against the 76ers in Toronto could help swing things toward the Raptors who own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia. The 76ers, however, play the Indiana Pacers twice and the Detroit Pistons once and are unlikely to lose any of those games.

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