Vegas Expects Another Disappointing Season for the Raptors

The Toronto Raptors aren't expected to be a .500 team according to Vegas oddsmakers who don't think the team will make the playoffs in 2021-22

If Vegas oddsmakers are right, the Toronto Raptors are in store for another very disappointing season in 2021-22.

On the heels of a 27-45 (.375) campaign that was the worst for Toronto in a decade, the Raptors aren't expected to turn things around very much next year. BetOnline has set the Raptors' win total at 36.5 for next year, suggesting they'll be a below .500 team for the second straight season, and given the team about a 40% chance of making the playoffs at +250 odds.

Based on the standings from the last decade (adjusting for the COVID-19 shortened seasons), Eastern Conference teams have needed to win about 40 games to make the playoffs. In the three seasons, however, that number has dropped to about 38 games and, with the addition of the play-in tournament, it's possible Toronto could win even fewer games and sneak into the playoffs as the 10th seed with a pair of do-or-die play-in wins.

Betting on Toronto's win total or playoff odds this year will largely come down to faith in Pascal Siakam who is expected to miss about the first month of the season due to offseason shoulder surgery. If the Raptors can tread water until their 27-year-old former All-Star returns and Siakam can get back to his pre-pandemic ways, there's a very real chance Toronto can outperform expectations and make the playoffs as a middle-of-the-pack team in the East.

Conversely, if things go poorly to start the season, it's clear what Raptors president and vice-chairman Masai Ujiri thinks of the play-in tournament. Toronto could be hanging around the middle of the Eastern Conference much like they did last year and decide it's not worth making a push for the playoffs, again, much like last season. 

That's what makes the 36.5 win total so perplexing. With a healthy and reinvigorated Siakam and no COVID-19 issues, that's a very doable number. The Raptors were a .500 team prior to their COVID outbreak last season. But once the organization decided to pivot toward taking around early April, Toronto lost about 2/3rds of its games down the stretch. If the organization makes that decision again, there's no chance the Raptors hit the 36.5 win mark in 2021-22.

Further Reading

Pascal Siakam is poised for a bounce-back season in 2021

Vegas oddsmakers aren't taking kindly to Raptors players in preseason award odds

Raptors to open the season at home on October 20 with Kyle Lowry's return slated for February