Takeaways from Raptors Potentially Crucial Early Season Loss to Pistons

Toronto Raptors fall to Detroit Pistons in what could end up being a crucial game for the NBA draft lottery this spring

Nov 15, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Detroit Pistons forward Ronald Holland II (00) and Toronto Raptors forward Jamison Battle (77) chase down the ball during the second quarter at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Detroit Pistons 99, Toronto Raptors 95

Capture the Flagg

These are the games that are going to matter.

The conventional wisdom when it comes to the NBA draft is to look at the top end of the lottery and forecast the probability of landing the No. 1 pick. Coming into Friday night, Toronto had the worst record in the league and a 14% chance to land the top pick if the season ended Friday.

But there’s another perspective that matters as much, if not more.

The real benefit to being lower in the standings is what happens in the worst-case scenario. The league’s decision to smooth out the lottery odds a few years ago means each of the three worst teams have an equal probability to land a top four pick. The difference, though, is how far each team can fall down the draft lottery. The worst team, for example, can’t fall lower than No. 5. The second worst team can’t fall lower than No. 6 and so on.

That’s where the standing really matter and why Friday's loss could be so important come this spring.

The Pistons know this story all too well. They’ve finished with the worst record in the league in each of the last two seasons only to fall on lottery night to No. 5. It’s part of what’s hampered their seemingly never-ending rebuild. But for Detroit, the odds have been out of their control. What they can control is how far they can fall and Friday helped Toronto remain as the league's worst team for a little longer.

A missed corner three from Gradey Dick that would have given Toronto the lead in the final 20 seconds rimmed out and the Raptors were forced to start fouling. Toronto had one more chance to tie it up following a missed free throw from Jaden Ivey but Dick again couldn't cash in.

Struggling Rookie

Toronto’s rookies are looking like rookies.

To expect anything else was ridiculous to begin with. Despite an impressive start to the season for Jamal Shead and Jonathan Mogbo, the two have regressed and look like the second-round rookies they are.

Shead was lifted from the rotation in the first half for Garrett Temple after a rough five-minute stretch, and Mogbo is still trying to figure out how to get his shots off.

For Toronto, that’s OK.

“Our rookies are in a perfect position. They're exactly where they need to be,” Raptors coach Darko Rajaković said prior to tipoff. “They're playing against really good teams. They're stepping on the court. They're doing some good stuff, but also failing. Failing on the court is so good and so important to learn and to rise from that.

“How (am I) supposed to show a player what he needs to do if he does have footage of himself doing it the wrong way? And how can how help him to speed up the development process is only through that repetition and being in those situations. I think it's completely normal.”

Toronto wasn’t expecting Shead and Mogbo to come in and be in this position. The plan had been to get them limited NBA minutes while they saw plenty of opportunities in the G League this year. But then came the injury bug that has forced the Raptors to dive deep into its bench and play rookies far more than anyone would have hoped.

On Friday, it wasn’t particularly pretty. A 7-2 run by the Pistons to start the fourth quarter against a lineup featuring Toronto's healthy three rookies forced the Raptors to burn an early timeout. Jamison Battle helped Toronto recover with a crucial corner three after a great find from RJ Barrett, but the Raptors wisely went back to its regulars when it mattered most.

The hope for Toronto is these opportunities spark the development as Shead, Mogbo, Battle, and eventually Ja’Kobe Walter work toward a brighter future.

MVPoeltl

Jakob Poeltl is just so reliable.

It’s been hard to write about Poeltl this season because he just posts the same, solid, and generally unexciting numbers on a nightly basis. He’s not flashy. He’s not going to wow anyone with big dunks or crazy defensive plays. What he is, though, is consistent and quite possibly Toronto’s most valuable player this year.

On both ends of the court, Poeltl makes everything look so much easier.

"We depend on him a lot," Rajaković said post-game. "When he plays in the pocket, when he is connected with teammates, he's able to score, but also to find his teammates. I think he's making huge strides for us.”

Poeltl is a release value for the offense and Toronto’s best screen setter for Gradey Dick and Toronto’s point guards to take advantage of. His shooting somehow can’t extend past the free-throw line but his push shot is among the most efficient shots in the league. He repeatedly posted up Jalen Duran and Isaiah Stewart with ease and did his usual thing, dropping 25 points on 12-for-21 shooting with another 19 rebound night.

If Toronto ever wants to get really serious about tanking, Poeltl is going to have to go. He’s too positively impactful for this team if the goal is to be losing games and anyone looking for a center should be ready to pony up for Poeltl. That said, Poeltl is exactly the kind of player Toronto is going to be looking for once the Raptors start to contend again and maybe keeping him around for next year has its merits too.

Up Next: Boston Celtics

The Raptors will hurry out of town Friday night and head to Boston to take on the Celtics at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday