Option Deadline & Expectations for Raptors' Ochai Agbaji

The Toronto Raptors have a decision to make on Ochai Agbaji's future as he nears the end of his rookie contract

Mar 23, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Ochai Agbaji (30) shoots a three point basket during the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Raptors are heading toward a decision regarding the future of Ochai Agbaji.

Like all first-round picks selected in 2022, Agbaji has a team option that the organization has until Oct. 31 to exercise for the 2025-26 season. If exercised, the contract will pay Agbaji $6.4 million for the final year of his rookie contract before he'll enter restricted free agency in 2026. If declined, Agbaji will enter free agency following this upcoming season.

In most instances, these decisions are a no-brainer. The vast majority of first-round picks have their contracts picked up for the full term of their rookie deals. From the 2021 draft class, for example, only six of the 30 first-round picks didn't make it through their rookie deals.

In Agbaji's case, it's potentially a little less straightforward.

The 24-year-old hasn't shown much offensive development in his brief NBA career. He averaged just 5.8 points per game last season while shooting 41.1% from the floor and his three-point stroke fell to an alarming 29.4%. Toronto had hoped to fix his shot over the summer, but Abgaji didn't look comfortable at Summer League where he averaged just six points on 35.7% shooting across four games.

What's been clear is that Agbaji is a solid defender. He's 6-foot-5, 215 pounds, and can hold his own on the wings. At times last year, he was Toronto's primary defender against the opposing team's best player and was tasked with starting 18 games down the stretch for the Raptors.

But entering this year it's not clear if Agbaji will even start the season in Toronto's rotation. Four of Toronto's five starters appear set in stone with Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl all guaranteed to start for the Raptors when healthy. Gradey Dick, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Ja'Kobe Walter, and Davion Mitchell are likely pegged to be the next five in some order which gives Toronto a pretty clear-cut top nine entering the season. After that Agbaji is in the mix alongside Jonathan Mogbo, Chris Boucher, and Jamal Shead who should see playing time when Toronto is forced to open up its second unit.

Toronto isn't likely to be a cap space team next summer, so there's no obvious reason to move on from Agbaji. That said, if the Raptors are planning to use their full mid-level exception next season a little extra financial flexibility to use in free agency or in a trade next summer may not be such a bad thing. Toronto was able to turn salary cap space into multiple second-round picks in a deal with the Sacramento Kings last summer and giving up on Agbaji would create more flexibility below the luxury tax threshold.

The Raptors likely won't decline Agbaji's option considering the relatively small size of the contract and the potential upside if he can develop into an adequate three-point shooter next season. But while it's an obvious decision for most prospect, Agbaji's lackluster start to his career at least makes this situation a little bit more complicated.