Lottery Look: Victories Galore as Raptors Hold Steady in Draft Lottery Odds

The Toronto Raptors have essentially locked up the No. 6 spot in the NBA's draft lottery this summer

Apr 5, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (0) drives to the / Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The sixth slot it is.

Nothing has quite been made official yet, but the Toronto Raptors have essentially locked themselves in to the sixth-worst record in the NBA and what'll be a 45.8% chance to land a top-six pick in this year's NBA Draft.

Toronto could have potentially had an outside shot at the fifth-worst record had the Raptors lost to the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday thanks to a victory by the Portland Trail Blazers, but Toronto's victory keeps the margin between the teams at three games with just five to go this season.

At this point, it's extremely unlikely that the Memphis Grizzlies can make up the difference to eclipse Toronto from behind. Another Memphis victory has kept the Grizzlies three games back of the Raptors with five to go this year.

Barring the unforeseen, Toronto will have a 37.2% chance to move into the top four come the draft lottery on Mother's Day. That's broken down into a 9% chance to land the No. 1 pick, a 9.2% chance to land the No. 2 pick, a 9.4% chance to land the No. 3 pick, and a 9.6% chance to land the No. 4 pick. The Raptors cannot get the No. 5 pick and will have an 8.6% chance to stay at No. 6.

There's a 54.2% chance Toronto falls in the draft lottery which would result in the Raptors giving up their first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs. Toronto moved the pick at last year's trade deadline in the deal for Jakob Poeltl.

Should Toronto keep its first-round pick this year, the Raptors will have to give the Spurs a top-six protected first-round pick in 2025 or 2026.