Raptors Mailbag: Future Trades, Draft Odds, & What's Next for Toronto

Breaking down the Toronto Raptors' lottery odds, Scottie Barnes' ceiling, potential roster moves, and what the future holds as the team looks ahead to next season

Aaron Rose | Feb 26, 2025

Feb 23, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) dribbles the ball as Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) defends in the second half at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

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Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are in a strange spot. With the trade deadline behind them and a real playoff spot largely out of reach, the rest of this season is about development, evaluating their young core, and positioning themselves for the draft. That has naturally led to plenty of questions about the lottery odds, the future of RJ Barrett, and whether this team is capable of making a real leap next season.

In this mailbag, we tackle those topics and more, breaking down Scottie Barnes’ ceiling, the possibility of a Kevin Durant trade (spoiler: not happening), and the realistic outlook for 2025-26. As. always, if you have a question for a future mailbag feel free to message me @aaronbenrose on Instagram.

What chances do we have to land a top 3 pick? - @tgoncalo7

Right now, it's 31.6%. I don’t think the Raptors are likely to improve those odds by moving further down the standings. In fact, given they gave the easiest remaining schedule in the league, there’s a good chance they move in the other direction. If they fall behind the 76ers, their odds drop to 27.6%. If they slip two spots, it goes down to 23.4%.

Do you think the Raptors will trade RJ if we get Cooper? Do you think we will get Cooper? - @ysb021

I'll start with the second question: no. The odds of the Raptors landing the No. 1 pick are low. But if they do win the lottery and take Cooper Flagg, there would be financial implications. Staying under the luxury tax would be tough, and in that scenario, moving RJ Barrett would make sense. Toronto hasn’t shown a willingness to pay the tax, but they’ve put themselves in a position where they might have to. Maybe that’s a sign ownership is open to spending.

Do you think Scottie can win MVP one day? - @jenu_2107

No. Scottie Barnes is an outstanding defender and will make All-Defensive teams in his career, but I haven’t seen enough offensive growth to believe he’ll ever be a dominant scorer. MVPs are almost always elite offensive engines, and that’s not Barnes' game. At his best, I see him as a high-level defensive stopper and a strong second or third offensive option on a championship team.

Should the Raptors keep on winning games? Seems like Masai has a pick he already wants in the 5-8 range. - @hkap25

No. The organization has made it clear that making the playoffs this year isn’t a priority. If the Raptors love a player in the 5-8 range, they could always trade down and pick up additional assets if they land in the top two. I have no reason to believe they prefer someone in that range over the top four prospects.

Considering we get a decent first-round pick next season, where do you see us in 2025-26? - @rorozzig

Unless the Raptors land a top two pick, their first rounder likely won’t make a huge impact right away. That said, I think they’ll be in the play-in mix next season. Their outlook will largely depend on health, especially for Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl. The East’s top three teams seem set, and if Milwaukee keeps its core intact, they should be in that upper tier as well. Toronto should be in the next group alongside Detroit, Orlando, Indiana, and Atlanta if things go right.

When will B.I. play? - @shaohuacyrstal

I’m not convinced he plays this season. Given the remaining schedule, there’s not much reason to bring him back just to face weaker teams. Maybe they let him get a few games in at the end, but I’d probably just shut him down and let him focus on next season.

What do you think of RJ and IQ and a bunch of first-rounders for KD? - @marcelelias7

I don’t think the Raptors should be trading for a 36-year-old Kevin Durant with one year left on his contract. A core of Barnes, Durant, Ingram, and Poeltl wouldn’t be good enough to justify an all-in move the way it was when Toronto traded for Kawhi Leonard. The timing just isn’t right.

What’s a realistic finish to the season, and where do we draft? - @grahamslagt

The Raptors are going to have a tough time consistently losing games. For example, their upcoming stretch includes Utah, Washington, Washington, Philadelphia, and Utah. They’ll probably win a few of those. My guess is they finish with the seventh-worst record, which would give them a 34.1% chance to pick at No. 8. That feels like the most likely outcome.

Do you think the current roster can win 50 games next season? - @tman_13s

Probably not. A 50-win season would put them among the top teams in the East, and that’s a big jump from where they are now. It would also require good health, and until Ingram proves he can stay on the court for 65+ games, I’m skeptical. The lack of a reliable backup center is another issue and if Poeltl misses time again, it could derail things quickly.

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