Early Look at Lottery Odds Have Raptors Facing Decisions Ahead

The Toronto Raptors have a rare opportunity to add a blue-chip draft prospect thanks to a slew of injuries and a ridiculously tough schedule early this season

Nov 10, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic meets with guard Ochai Agbaji (30), forward Chris Boucher (25), and other players during a timeout against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images / Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

The Toronto Raptors have hit rock bottom.

That’s not to say there’s some dysfunction festering within the locker room the way Toronto saw a few years ago or some off-court drama unfolding the way the organization saw last season. But when it comes to the on-court product the Raptors are quite literally in dead last.

Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Lakers has Toronto sitting at 2-9, a half game worse than the Milwaukee Bucks for the worst record in the NBA.

Part of that is due to Toronto’s injuries that have ravaged most of the core for most of the season. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley have all missed extended time. So too have Ja’Kobe Walter, Kelly Olynyk, and Bruce Brown who were all expected to see rotation minutes this season.

The schedule hasn’t done the Raptors any favors either. Toronto has played one of the toughest schedules in the league so far and run through a gauntlet of Western Conference teams with playoff and championship aspirations for this year.

But maybe this situation isn’t so bad.

If the season ended right now, Toronto would have a 14% chance to land the No. 1 pick and a 52.1% chance to land a top-four pick. Arguably most importantly, the Raptors would be guaranteed a top-five pick in what’s expected to be a loaded 2025 draft class.

That said, it’s hard to see Toronto staying this bad all season.

The Raptors have looked competitive in most of their games and should look better when Barnes gets back healthy in a couple of weeks. The schedule opening up too will give Toronto an opportunity to make up ground in the conference if that’s something the organization wants to do.

What’s clear is the Raptors have given themselves a rare opportunity early this season to go after the type of blue-chip prospect the organization could really use moving forward. If Toronto’s young core continues to develop this season and into the future, the Raptors aren’t going to be at or near the top of the lottery again anytime soon. That makes this moment particularly crucial for Toronto.

The Raptors haven’t looked like the league’s worst team, but a confluence of injuries and a strange scheduling quirk have Toronto sitting last in the league. Now it’s time to take advantage of that.