Looking Ahead as Raptors Will Have Tough Decisions to Make

The Toronto Raptors are heading toward a crossroads and will have to decide if it's worth it to go for a playoff spot this season

Nov 21, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes (4) celebrates after a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Toronto Raptors aren’t looking ahead.

It’s probably the right strategy for now. Nobody is talking about lottery odds or tanking despite a 4-12 start to the season. At the same time, though, two straight wins don’t have the Raptors looking at playoff or play-in seeding yet.

“I’m trying to win basketball games. I think that’s always the goal,” RJ Barrett said when a reporter asked him Thursday about the Eastern Conference standings. “Rebuilding or not, you go out there, you give it your best effort, you try to win, you try to get better every single night, and that’s what we’re doing.”

But even if they won't, the rest of us can look at the big picture for a moment.

The Raptors sit tied with the New Orleans Pelicans for the fourth-worst record in the NBA. They have two more wins than Philadelphia and Washington and two fewer wins than Chicago who sits in sixth. It doesn’t matter all that much right now, but if the season ended today, Toronto would have a 45.1% chance to land a top four pick and an 11.5% chance to land the No. 1 pick.

Looking the other way, Toronto is just 2.5 games out of the play-in tournament and three games back of the Atlanta Hawks who currently claim the sixth seed despite a 7-9 record. That’s thanks in large part to how weak the East has been to start this season with just four teams with a winning record so far.

That’s why things may get a little tricky for Toronto later this season.

If the Raptors can get healthy and tread water over the next couple of months, it’s conceivable that Toronto could work its way into the play-in picture by piling on wins late in the year when the schedule begins to open up. The Raptors have so far looked better than expected despite the injuries and should get even better when Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley start seeing regular playing time again.

But will it be worth it?

The start to this season has given Toronto an opportunity to potentially add a top prospect in the draft next summer. It may require some luck, but the Raptors have full control over exactly how much luck they’ll need when the ping-pong balls start flying during the NBA draft lottery. A little luck next summer could see the Raptors add more high-end talent to a core that's already shown plenty of reasons to get excited.

It’s too early to really start with any tanking shenanigans but the next few weeks will be determinative for this organization when the new year begins and Toronto has to make some tough decisions.