Can Increased Pick-And-Roll Return James Harden to MVP Form?

Harden's scoring average dropped under 30 points per game from Jan. 1 to March 10 as the 2017-18 MVP shot just 40% from the field.

It was a tale of two seasons for James Harden before the NBA went on an indefinite hiatus due to the coronavirus outbreak. The 2017-18 MVP started the season on a historic scoring tear, dropping 35-plus points in 20 of his first 34 games through Dec. 31. Harden entered 2020 on pace to break the non-Wilt scoring record, and he remained a viable MVP candidate against Giannis Antetokounmpo. The last two months told a different story.

Harden struggled mightily from Jan. 1 to March 10, seeing his scoring average dip below 30 points per game as he shot 40% from the field and 31% from three. The NBA's scoring leader went from a historically efficient December to an ugly January and February, seemingly switching roles with Russell Westbrook as Houston's point guard emerged as the team's go-to scorer. So what changed when the calendar turned to 2020? There are a few potential explanations. 

The Rockets dove headfirst into its small-ball experiment at the start of February when they shipped Clint Capela in a four-team trade to receive Robert Covington. The deal left Houston without a true center in its rotation, and it represented a permanent shift in the Rockets' roster construction. All players in their rotation can dribble and score in space. Each player (aside from Russell Westbrook) is at least adequate from beyond the arc. Yet while the Capela deal was dramatic, it didn't necessarily mark a departure from Houston's style throughout January. 

Head coach Mike D'Antoni began to increasingly rely on small-ball in January, in part due to Capela's nagging heel injury. But the injury wasn't the only catalyst for D'Antoni's move. Houston's head coach altered his lineups to benefit Russell Westbrook, creating five-out spacing around the dynamic point guard without Capela. The move worked wonders for the former Thunder star. Westbrook averaged 31.7 points per game from Jan. 1 to March 10, shooting a blistering 53% from the field. It's easy to see the impact of D'Antoni's decision on Westbrook. Parsing the effects on Harden is a different story. 

It's hard to pin all of Harden's recent struggles on the lack of a center, but the numbers paint a pretty clear picture. While Harden's percentages from three can deviate based on simple luck and sample size, strategy and personnel have a greater impact on his drives to the rim. And the numbers after New Year's Eve weren't pretty. 

Harden tallied 613 drives in 33 games before Jan. 1, posting a 56.6% field goal percentage on possessions that ended in a shot. That number ranked No. 9 out of the 147 players with at least 100 attempts before January, keeping Harden among the league's elite in that category. Harden has trailed off severely since. Harden made just 48.9% of shots on drives after Jan. 1, ranking No. 64 out of the 141 players to tally at least 100 attempts. That mark is certainly respectable, though far from the elite level expected of a player in the top ten of attempts. Perhaps Houston's stylistic turn shares some of the culpability.

How could Harden get back on track when (or, to be pessimistic, if) the NBA returns from the coronavirus suspension? The Rockets could be well served by turning back the clock. Harden feasted as a pick-and-roll ball handler in previous seasons with the Rockets, punishing teams in a two-man game alongside Capela. The shift to increased isolation is sensible on paper–especially when the Capela screen invited an easy trap–but in practice, the move away from isolation has made Harden at times one dimensional. 

Defenders are increasingly crowding Harden beyond the arc, daring him to drive to the hoop. When he does, Harden faces a wall of defenders, none of whom have to be concerned about another body diving toward the rim. Harden can kick it out to open shooters, but the Rockets aren't loaded with marksman. Defenses are willing to let the likes of P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington shoot rather than let Harden get in a rhythm in the paint. D'Antoni's decision has caused some unintended consequences.

Capela was a dynamic roll presence when healthy, though he isn't exactly irreplaceable alongside Houston. Harden has found a quick chemistry with Jeff Green in traditional pick-and-rolls, with Green thriving as an agile, athletic finisher. Tucker isn't exactly a vertical spacer, but he's a true bruiser in the lane with an increasingly effective floater. Harden has no shortage of pick-and-roll partners at his disposal. Even Westbrook could be an effective screener for his fellow MVP.

Harden is averaging 0.98 points as a pick-and-roll ball handler this season, a solid (albeit unspectacular) mark. Isolation is still Harden's primary mode of lighting up the scoreboard, but some variation can never hurt. Whenever the league returns, Houston would be well served mixing things up with the league's most dynamic scoring threat.