Inside The Rockets

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Watch: Rockets Primed for No. 1 Overall Pick

The Houston Rockets are at the bottom of the Western Conference standings for the third consecutive season and have legitimate aspirations of winning the NBA Draft Lottery later this Spring.

Matthew Legros

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The Houston Rockets are 16-52, trailing only the 16-53 Detroit Pistons as the worst team in the NBA. Houston has 14 games remaining in the 2023 regular season and as it stands, has all but certain odds of finishing in the bottom-five league-wide prior to the start of the postseason. Will they win the Draft Lottery, or settle for a top-five pick?

Joining the Rockets (and Pistons) among the five teams with the greatest odds at earning the rights to incumbent No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama are the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic. These are the only five teams that have amassed 40 or more losses this year.

Houston was officially recognized as eliminated from playoff contention recently with ample time remaining in the season. Their losing ways are nothing new, as they've finished dead last in the Western Conference in the last two seasons prior to 2022-23, all since the departures of Russell Westbrook and James Harden. 

The Rockets selected No. 3 overall in 2022, taking Jabari Smith Jr. out of Auburn University. In 2021, the Rockets won the No. 2 overall pick, taking Jalen Green from the NBA G League Ignite. 

NBA.com laid out the stipulations for the 2023 Draft Lottery, saying in part:

"The new system will level the odds at the top of the NBA Draft Lottery so that the teams with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14 percent chance of winning the lottery. In the pre-2019 structure, the top seed had a 25 percent of winning the lottery, the second seed had a 19.9 percent and the third seed had a 15.6 percent."

Currently, Houston would have joint-14 percent odds at the top overall selection. Should they string together enough wins to ascend in the standings, they still have an overwhelming chance of securing 12.5 percent odds due to the No. 27 overall seed, or 10.5 percent chances given to the No. 26 overall seed. 

The Rockets are 3-14 in their last 17 games, including a recent 11-game losing streak which was briefly quelled by a two-game winning stand against the Spurs, before spilling into their current three-game losing spell.

Moving forward, Houston will see eight teams in the top six of their respective conferences. These include the defending Champion Golden State Warriors on March 20 at home.

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Matthew Legros
MATTHEW LEGROS

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