Grading Rockets' Potential First-Round Matchups

Houston is projected to face one of the four Play-In Tournament teams in the playoffs. How do they match up with each one?

Feb 21, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Aaron Holiday (0) drives with the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (9) and guard Jaylen Clark (22) defend during the game at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With the NBA Playoffs around the corner, teams can start to anticipate their first-round matchups. In the Western Conference, nothing is guaranteed with such a tight race in the standings. However, the Houston Rockets, who hold the second seed, should anticipate facing one of the first two Play-In Tournament teams barring their final nine games.

The Golden State Warriors have been one of the best teams in the NBA since trading for Jimmy Butler, as they've propelled to the sixth seed in the West with a 41-31 record. Behind them are the LA Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings, and Phoenix Suns.

Because of the Play-In seeding, the Rockets will face the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game if they hold on to the second seed. This will likely be the Clippers or Timberwolves, but there is a chance Houston drops to the third seed, which would likely mean the team faces the Warriors. How do the Rockets match up against these teams?

LA Clippers

Dec 8, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; LA Clippers guard Norman Powell (24) drives against Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) during the second quarter at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images / Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

Matchup Grade: B

While the Clippers have been on the downtrend over the last few seasons, they've had somewhat of a mini-renaissance with James Harden and Normal Powell leading the way. Kawhi Leonard is back from injury and has been tearing it up over his last six games as well, averaging 26.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.3 steals.

LA is a dangerous two-way team for the Rockets, but Houston is built to shut them down. They've built their defense around defending the wings at an elite level, behind players like Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Tari Eason.

The biggest challenges come at the point guard and center positions. Can Fred VanVleet shake off his inconsistencies to perform against his matchup (likely Harden or Kris Dunn), and can Alperen Sengun hold his own against an experienced and productive center in Ivica Zubac? The Rockets won all three matchups so far this season, but it certainly won't be easy in the playoffs.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Feb 21, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. (10) drives with the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) defends during the fourth quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Matchup Grade: C+

The Timberwolves gave the Rockets a tougher time this season, splitting the season series 2-2. Three of the four games came down to how clutch either team could be in the fourth quarter, which is what could decide this potential playoff matchup.

Minnesota shouldn't be this low in the standings, but poor play to start the season hindered its performance. The Timberwolves struggled to fit Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo into the rotation, but they've found a groove, winning 10 of their last 15 games.

Anthony Edwards is the biggest threat to the Rockets in this series, but again, Houston has the defenders to go up against him. The challenge will be how the Rockets fare against elite star-stoppers such as Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, who are matchup nightmares for Green and Sengun.

Golden State Warriors (If Houston Drops to No. 3 Seed)

Feb 13, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Dillon Brooks (9) and Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski (2) reach for a loose ball in the first half at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Matchup Grade: C-

The Warriors are essentially a top-five team in the NBA disguised as a fringe playoff team. They started the season struggling, but since pairing Butler with Stephen Curry, they've been 10th in offensive rating (117.6), second in defensive rating (109.1), and fifth in net rating (+8.6). Golden State is 16-6 since the trade deadline.

The Rockets can defend the Warriors' 'small ball' style of play but expect low-scoring games in a potential series. Butler knows how to turn it up in the postseason, and the majority of the rotation has championship-level experience.

Either of these teams could make a deep playoff run, but the Warriors' hot streak since February, combined with the experience of Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green, makes Golden State the worst first-round matchup of the three teams for Houston. The Rockets have just one win and three losses against the Warriors this season.

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