Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks: 3 Best Bets for In-Season Tournament Matchup
The Houston Rockets hit the road to take on the Dallas Mavericks tonight in some NBA In-Seaosn Tournament action. This is the final game for both teams, and if Houston wins by 16 points they can clinch a spot in the Knockout Round.
Entering the game, Dallas is the better team but has been on a cold streak, going 2-4 in their last six games. In the same span, Houston is 3-3 and is yet to win a game on the road this season.
Luka Doncic is averaging over 30 points on the season and hasn’t slowed down after a hot start, although he is nursing a thumb injury which might prevent him from playing most of the game tonight. The Rockets will be without Amen Thompson and Victor Oladipo. Dallas won’t play Maxi Kleber.
Houston has Dillon Brooks, Tari Eason, Jae'Sean Tate, and Fred VanVleet all listed as probable, while Dallas only has Dereck Lively II as probable.
The Houston Rockets celebrate a win over the Denver Nuggets.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
With hefty injury reports, let’s look at the lines and picks courtesy of SI Sportsbook.
The Lines
Point spread: Mavericks -4.5 (-110)/Rockets +4.5 (-125)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-188)/Rockets (+138)
Over/under: 228.5
Our Picks
Safe pick: Alperen Sengun OVER 20.5 points (-133)
This is a solid pick for two reasons: Sengun is averaging 20.2 points per game and has scored under this line only once in the last seven games. On top of that, the Mavericks have a depleted frontcourt, which means Sengun will have his choice of scoring methods. If Lively doesn’t play, the Mavericks will not have a defensive answer for Sengun.
Opponent pick: Luka Doncic OVER 29.5 points (-133)
Since Doncic is playing, this pick is a no-brainer. Any time his line is under 30, pounding the over makes the most sense, especially with Dillon Brooks listed as questionable. Without Brooks’ suffocating defense, Doncic will be able to tear up Houston’s defense, so 29.5 is actually rather low.
Parlay pick: Tim Hardaway Jr. to get 3+ three-pointers, Luka Doncic to get 2+ three-pointers, Fred VanVleet to get 2+ three-pointers, and Jalen Green to get a three-pointer (+150)
We rarely pick parlays, but this one is a pretty safe bet. The only questionable legs are Doncic’s health and Hardaway Jr. to hitting that many threes, but he averages 3.4 per game on the season. Unless he goes cold, all the legs should hit, especially the ones dependent on Houston’s offensive production.
