Rockets' Jalen Green Goes First Overall in 2021 NBA Redraft?

According to NBA Radio, Jalen Green would go first overall in a redraft of the 2021 NBA Draft. Is this a legitimate claim, or is recency bias a factor?

Mar 27, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (4). / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the Houston Rockets' 11-game win streak, Jalen Green has been one of the best players in the NBA, averaging 30.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and a blistering 45.0 percent from three. His spectacular play has propelled the Rockets into the postseason conversation as they catch up with the Golden State Warriors for the 10th and final spot of the NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament.

His recent play begs a serious question: Is he the best player from his draft class? The 2021 class was headlined by Green, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Scottie Barnes, and later picks Franz Wagner and Alperen Sengun have also had NBA success.

Nov 10, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (0) and Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2). / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Termine of NBA Radio seems to think that Green has cemented himself as the best player in the class.

"A week ago, I would have told you Jalen Green isn't even in the top five in a redraft...I would say two weeks ago, I would have said Jalen Green is not one of the top five guys from that draft," he said. "You got Cade, you got Mobley, you got Barnes, you got Kuminga coming on hard this year, Jalen Johnson has been great this year, Sengun is awesome...I could see him going number one overall right now if you did a redraft, the way he's been playing the last couple of weeks."

Is Termine's take reasonable, or is he falling victim to recency bias? While it's clear that Green is the best player over the recent stretch, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone — even the most diehard Rockets fan — who will earnestly claim that he is the best player in the draft class.

Stat (2023-24)	Jalen Green	Cade Cunningham	Alperen Sengun	Scottie Barnes	Franz Wagner
PPG	20.0	22.4	21.1	19.9	19.6
RPG	5.1	4.3	9.3	8.2	5.3
APG	3.4	7.5	5.0	6.1	3.8
FG%	42.8%	44.6%	53.7%	47.5%	47.9%
3PT%	34.1%	35.0%	29.7%	34.1%	28.5%
Win Shares	3.4	1.6	7.1	4.4	5.5

It's worth noting that Wagner has the benefit of playing alongside an All-Star in Paolo Banchero, but Green has the benefit of playing next to Sengun, who has already drawn comparison to Nikola Jokic. Cunningham is the best player on one of the worst teams ever, and Scottie Barnes became a first-time All-Star this season.

In a redraft, Barnes likely slots up to the first overall pick, with Cunningham, who has quietly been having an exceptional season after returning from injury, falling to Houston at second overall. From there, Green actually goes third overall when accounting for his career as a whole. Aside from this very recent stretch of games, he has largely been inefficient.

Sure, his highs are higher than anyone else from his draft class. But at his lows, he is downright unplayable, and coach Ime Udoka has benched him on multiple occasions. With his recent play, his stock is rising rapidly, but he is still behind the All-Star talent that the 2021 draft class had.