What Should the Rockets' Long-Term Expectations Be?

Houston is starting to shape their timeline as a postseason appearance becomes more realistic.

Mar 10, 2024; Sacramento, California, USA; Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) and forward Jabari Smith Jr. (10) stand on the court during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets are progressing as one of the more exciting franchises in the NBA. The organization hit a hard 'reset' button after trading their franchise superstar James Harden in 2021, but after three straight losing seasons, the Rockets are looking to move out of that phase and into playoff contention.

Houston saw a big jump in production last season, particularly on the defensive end. Because of this, the Rockets had a 19-win increase from 2022-23 to 2023-24, and went 41-41. Unfortunately, a .500 record wasn't enough to crack the Play-In Tournament, but expectations have risen with this rapid improvement.

The Rockets drafted plenty of productive players between 2021 and 2023, and should look to keep most of their core if possible. Alperen Şengün (Houston's best player) and Jalen Green are eligible for max rookie extensions this season, and the front office should at least look to get that done with Şengün. Green's status in Houston is up in the air with his inconsistency.

The general goal for GM Rafael Stone should be to keep as much of the young core together as possible. It's developing at a rapid rate under head coach Ime Udoka, and the supporting veteran talent meshed well in Udoka's first season.

The long-term expectation is that Houston evolves into a playoff team, if not this year then the season after. The Rockets should look to develop their offense, as it struggled as opposed to their defense. If the Rockets can continue on this path of improvement, then it wouldn't be crazy to say that after a few seasons of postseason basketball, Houston should aim to move into title contention by the end of the decade or the early 2030s.

---

Want to join the discussion? Like Rockets on SI Facebook and follow us on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest Rockets news. You can also meet the team behind the coverage.