Would the Rockets Rather Face the Lakers or Clippers in the Playoffs?

With both Los Angeles teams sporting superstar duos, are the Lakers or Clippers a better matchup for James Harden and the Rockets?

In the gauntlet that is the Western Conference, even winning one round in the 2020 playoffs would be an relative accomplishment for any team outside of Los Angeles. The Rockets, Nuggets, Jazz and Thunder were all on pace for 50-win seasons before the NBA's coronavirus suspension, and the Mavericks sport one of the league's top young duos. The West playoffs will be a grueling battle from the opening tip of the first round. 

But after three straight painful playoff exits–and a blockbuster trade last summer–the Rockets are eyeing far more than the Western Conference semifinals. Competition be damned, Houston has its sights firmly fixed on the Finals, a height that has eluded the franchise since 1995. Beating Denver, Utah or Oklahoma City in the first round is a difficult enough task. But what lies in the later rounds presents a far greater challenge. 

The Rockets will all-but-certainly have to dispatch one of the Los Angeles juggernauts in the second round, and its likely one or both of the Clippers or Lakers advance to the conference finals. So who would the Rockets like to face first if they advance to the West semifinals? Let's make the case for each opponent. 

The Case for the Lakers

Despite possessing the best record in the Western Conference, the Lakers haven't exactly steamrolled the Rockets in 2019-20. Each team has won one contest by nine-plus points this season, with the Rockets avenging a January loss at home with a resounding 121-111 win in Los Angeles on Feb. 6. The latter matchup provides a better window into what we could see in a potential Rockets vs. Lakers series. 

Feb. 6 marked the first game of the Robert Covington era in Houston as the Rockets began their foray into the extremes of small-ball. And by most measures, Houston's plan worked to a tee. Anthony Davis led Los Angeles with 32 points, though a significant scoring night from Davis is acceptable given the right circumstances. He didn't attempt a single three in the Rockets' victory, and he made just four free throws. It can be frustrating, but allowing Davis to bang home 18-footers all night is by no means a death sentence for Houston. High volume from low efficiency spots on the floor plays right into the Rockets' hands. For a player as talented as Davis, taking the lesser of two evils is a worthwhile decision. Houston can allow Davis to work in isolation–preferably outside the lane–then swarm when he prepares to shoot. Covington executed the scheme to perfection in his first game with the Rockets. 

To be fair, Houston's job is far tougher than a simple schematic decision against Davis. Los Angeles is massive in the interior aside from Davis, and, in case you forgot, the Lakers have the best player of the 21st century still near the the peak of his powers. James struggled on Feb. 6, scoring just 18 points as he went 1-8 from three. But it was a far different story on Jan. 18. James torched the Rockets for 35 points, demoralizing Houston as MVP chants emanated from the Los Angeles fans inside the Toyota Center in the fourth quarter. The performance featured James at his best, and Houston clearly lacked the personnel to contain the three-time champion. Either P.J. Tucker or Covington must defend Davis at all times. If either are on the bench when Los Angeles has its dynamic duo on the floor, James has effectively a free lane to the tin. 

Houston has bet big on its small-ball experiment, and it will certainly be tested against the Lakers. But despite the difficulty that lies ahead, there at least is a formula in place for the Rockets to pull off a mammoth upset. Place a big body on James, let Davis shoot away, and hope Los Angeles' role players stay cold for a couple of weeks in Orlando. Is it a full-proof plan? Not in the slightest. But credit Daryl Morey and Co. for their creativity. Such an unorthodox roster could be exactly what's needed to dethrone King James. 

The Case for the Clippers

While the Lakers provide a serious stylistic contrast to the Rockets, the Clippers are a bit of a mirror image. Houston and Los Angeles each sport a pair of non-center superstars, and both teams appear to be at their best when they eschew a big man altogether. The Rockets may need smoke and mirrors to beat the Lakers. They simply need to outplay the Clippers.

The task is certainly easier said than done, however. Los Angeles is No. 3 in offensive rating and No. 5 in defensive rating, and perhaps no team has a stronger eight-man rotation. The Clippers sported a 60-win pace when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George shared the floor. Lou Williams is one of the league's top scoring guards, and Patrick Beverley is a serious defensive menace despite Russell Westbrook's claims to the contrary. Los Angeles has battled inconsistency and injury throughout 2019-20. But when the Clippers are healthy, they're arguably the championship favorites.

So how can Houston advance past the Clippers in a potential matchup? It may take some deviation from the standard modus operandi. Leonard, George and Beverley are all superb isolation defenders, sporting quick hands and long arms. Mike D'Antoni would be smart to dial up a heavy dose of pick-and-roll, hoping to generate a switch in which Williams, Montrezl Harrell or Ivica Zubac are forced to guard Harden or Westbrook on an island. Similar to how Houston played Golden State in each of the past two playoffs, hunting the weakest defender is the most prudent path. 

A matchup with the Clippers would make for a combustible series, one filled with bumps, shoves and plenty of extracurricular activity after the whistle. But such chaos could ultimately benefit the Rockets. They'll enter the series as underdogs, but if they get the best from their dynamic duo, pulling off the upset is by no means impossible.