The Deep Shot: Evaluating the Houston Rockets’ Achilles Heel

The Houston Rockets’ shooting has been one of the few blemishes for a team in the midst of it's hottest start in several seasons.

Nov 22, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) warms up prior to the game against the Portland Trailblazers at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets’ strong start to the season can be attributed mainly to their impressive defensive effort and ability to take care of the basketball. Through those factors, they’ve placed themselves firmly amongst some of the top teams in the NBA. But one major separator from them and the rest of the league’s best is 3-point shooting.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record in the NBA. They are also the best shooting team in the league. Three of the other top-10 teams in terms of record also find themselves in the top-10 of 3-point percentage. And a few others are just outside the top-10 teams in the league.

While the deep shot is not the only determining factor that makes a team great, it could definitely limit a team that has almost the lowest 3-point percentage of any team in the top-10. 

In fact, the Rockets have one of the worst 3-point percentages in the league. At 33%, they have the fifth-worst shooting rate in the league. They’re amongst teams like the New Orleans Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic. Like the Rockets, Orlando is somewhat of an outlier. Despite having the worst shooting in the league, they also have the league’s best defense. Houston isn’t far behind in opponent points per game as they come in third just behind the Oklahoma City Thunder; another team that is underwhelming in 3-point shooting.

While strong defense goes a long way in covering for poor shooting, eventually offense matters. And without enough consistent shooters in the lineup, it’ll be difficult to place Houston in the ranks of teams like the Celtics and the Cavaliers.

There are few places the Rockets could see some improvement in their shooting. First, Jabari Smith Jr. deserves a lot of credit for improving his percentage to above 35%. He has become one of the more consistent shooters in the starting lineup, and he has knocked down some big shots throughout the season. The team has been creating more shots for Smith recently, but he’s averaging his lowest amount of attempts per game in his career. He’s also averaging the lowest points per game in his career. 

Smith has seen some open shots created by Alperen Şengün, but the offense could stand to see some more three-point attempts from their stretch big man as long as he continues to hit shots when it counts.

The main place the Rockets could see some improved shooting is with shooting guard Jalen Green. 

He’s averaging his worst percentage of his career, and his 3-point percentage has gotten worse every season since his rookie year. While he’s shooting a career-high in free-throw shooting, he is taking and missing a lot of threes this season. His 31% from deep is not satisfactory for a player who was billed as a potential lead scorer. 

If he can find a way to be a league-average shooter, the prospects of the Rockets have a chance to improve drastically. If not, Houston could be looking for shooting options in Reed Shepard or even outside of the team.

Deep shooting is one of Houston’s biggest weaknesses, but shooting could also be a luxury. When the likes of Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Smith and even Green are hot, the team is difficult to beat.

It’s not consistent at this point in the season, but the defense is the staple that holds the team together. While that could lead the Rockets to a strong regular season, at some point they will need to find some consistent shooting and offense. Especially if they're playing the best teams in the league in the postseason when it matters most.

---

Want to join the discussion? Like Rockets on SI on Facebook and follow us on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest Rockets news. You can also meet the team behind the coverage.