What is the Houston Rockets' Floor for 2024-25 Season?

While the Rockets have room for improvement, there is also room for error in their journey back to the postseason.

Apr 14, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson (1) controls the ball against the Los Angeles Clippers during the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Rockets have one of the more unique situations in the NBA. After winning just 22 games in the 2022-23 NBA season, they had an immense leap, going 41-41 last season and nearly making the Play-In Tournament. Even after that huge jump, Houston still landed the third overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, selecting Reed Sheppard out of Kentucky.

Right now, everything is trending upward for the Rockets. Sheppard had a spectacular NBA Summer League, displaying two-way talent and showing he could be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year despite being projected to come off the bench. Most of their team is still early in their career, so there's still room for development, and the veterans are still productive in their own right.

Given this context, Houston's ceiling should be very high. However, the spectrum between improvement and decline is larger than most teams.

The Rockets play in the harder of the two conferences, and this offseason the West only got better. While teams like the Warriors, Clippers, and Lakers stayed stagnant or declined, teams like the Pelicans, Kings, and Grizzlies have high hopes, perhaps higher than the Rockets. This will be a challenge for Houston, as they hope to have another big jump from last season.

The expectation for Houston this season should be a mix of player development and playoff basketball. However, those two goals are on opposite sides of the spectrum mentioned earlier. If the West is getting better as projected, and the improvement isn't as immense as it's projected, the Rockets' floor may be another lottery season, perhaps a season worse than last.

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