What is the Rockets’ Most Favorable First-Round Matchup?

The Rockets don't know who they'll face in the first round of the postseason. With a few games remaining in the season and a Play-In Tournament left before Houston finds out who it'll take on, not all matchups are equal for the Rockets.

Apr 9, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Houston Rockets guard Nate Williams (19) fights to keep possession against Los Angeles Clippers center Ivica Zubac (40) and forward Kawhi Leonard (2) in the second half at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets know they will be the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference when the postseason begins. With 51 wins already, the team is concluding one of its best regular seasons since 2000. While Houston is happy to enter the playoffs with its highest seed since 2017-18, the first-round matchup may be against a team that is several games over .500. The first round will be tough, but there are some matchups the Rockets may be better suited for to start the playoffs.

The Rockets have several options for their first-round matchup, as the Western Conference standings are still close in the middle. The Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets are right around the same record, and the seeding is still up in the air.

Of those matchups, playing the Warriors or the Timberwolves may be Houston's worst.

Golden State's postseason success against the Rockets is well-documented. Despite earning a victory against the Warriors, the modern-day Rockets still struggle to beat Golden State, led by Stephen Curry.

The Timberwolves and the Rockets are an explosive matchup as the dynamic guard Anthony Edwards leads his team with high-quality shooting and physical drives to the rim.

Minnesota and Golden State are similar since they rely on one offensive player who is an unstoppable jump shooter. Edwards and Curry take the league's top spots for 3-pointers made this season, and they've both had success against the Rockets. The Nuggets' Nikola Jokic is also a high-caliber player, making tough shots and improving the teammates around him.

These teams would make for a tough first-round series. The Rockets are disadvantaged by not having a top player to rely on. Taking on a team that does may make it easier to plan against, but Edwards, Curry, and Jokic are players that make defense negligible in most games. The Rockets have an elite defense, but it may be hard to bottle those players up for a seven-game series.

Houston's best matchup in the first round is likely against the Grizzlies or the Clippers.

These two teams have struggled against the Rockets when Houston is playing with its best players. Memphis lost every game to the Rockets this season, including three-straight games with less than a four-point margin of victory. Houston has several defenders that are physical and quick, nullyifying some of the quickness of Ja Morant and the physicality of Desmond Bane.

Those same factors contribute to a favorable matchup against the Clippers. LA isn't likely to fall much further in the standings to the Play-In Tournament, but it struggles to slow down Houston's offense or get much going against Houston's defense. James Harden and Kawhi Leonard are experienced postseason players, but the Rockets' defense is legit.

The Clippers have a comparable defense and can also negate Houston's offensive rebounding advantage. This makes the Grizzlies Houston's most ideal matchup in the first round. The Rockets will have to wait until the season and the Play-In Tournament are over before they can finally know who their first opponent will be.

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