How Close Are Spurs to Competing for NBA Cup Championship?

The San Antonio Spurs finished just one win away from making the knockout stages of the now-annual NBA Cup this season, begging the question of how soon it might be before they're the ones competing in Las Vegas.

Dec 3, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan (10) with center Victor Wembanyama (1) and guard Chris Paul (3) against the Phoenix Suns during an NBA Cup game at Footprint Center. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In its second year of existence, the NBA Cup seems to have been a success once again.

This time around, the top seeds in each conference — the Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder — made the championship, with the Bucks claiming a 97-81 victory.

Behind a 26-point triple-double from Giannis Antetokounmpo and a horrendous shooting performance from the Thunder (29-for-86 on field goals, 5-for-32 on 3-pointers), each player on Milwaukee exited Las Vegas half-a-million dollars richer.

As the likelihood of the tournament sticking around long-term seems high, such possibility begs the question: How close are the Spurs to contending for the NBA Cup?

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Recent NBA History can help answer that. Last season, all eight teams that made it to the knockout stage of the NBA Cup — the Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics — eventually made at least the Play-In Tournament.

Five of them — Phoenix, Milwaukee, New York, Indiana and Boston — all finished in the top six of their conference standings at the end of the regular season. 

This season, albeit less than one-third complete, repeated itself. All eight teams that made it to the knockout round currently sit in the top seven of their conference standings.

The exclusive pair of two-time NBA Cup knockout round participants, New York and Milwaukee, sit at No. 3 and No. 5 in the Eastern Conference, respectively. Their conference NBA Cup counterparts, the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks, are No. 4 and No. 7 respectively. In the Western Conference, the Thunder are atop the standings, while the Houston Rockets (No. 3), Dallas Mavericks (No. 4) and Golden State Warriors (No. 7) aren’t terribly far behind. 

Essentially, the NBA Cup’s knockout rounds have featured exclusively playoff-caliber teams, and the Spurs don’t seem to be there quite yet. However, there’s another non-historical argument that could be made for San Antonio being closer to an NBA Cup knockout round appearance than some might think.

The knockout round is composed of the six group stage winners (three per conference) and two “wild cards” (one per conference), teams that didn’t win their group but still boasted a good enough second-place record to qualify. In the NBA Cup’s two seasons, all 16 teams that qualified for the knockout round went at least 3-1 in group stage games. 

What does this mean for the Spurs? The knockout round isn’t reserved for playoff-caliber teams; any NBA team, whether they’re in contention for the NBA Finals or the No. 1 overall pick in the following year’s NBA Draft, has a shot at making the knockout round so long as they go at least 3-1 in the group stage.

Dec 13, 2024; Portland, Oregon, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Jeremy Sochan (10) celebrates with center Victor Wembanyama (1) a game against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Last season, the Brooklyn Nets, who finished the regular season 32-50, went 3-1. This season, the Detroit Pistons, who are 11-16, went 3-1 as well. Funny enough, both are part of a group of seven teams dating back to last season that didn’t qualify for the knockout round despite going 3-1 (Magic, Nets, Cavaliers and Timberwolves in 2023, Pistons, Celtics and Suns in 2024). 

Besides, the Spurs were one win away from going 3-1 in the group stage this season. After losing to the Lakers by just five, they beat the Thunder and Jazz before losing to the Suns. Had San Antonio knocked off Phoenix, it would’ve won West Group B, as the other 3-1 team in the group was Oklahoma City, whom the Spurs had defeated in group play on Nov. 19. 

While the Spurs might not have been the type of team that has qualified for the knockout round over the past two seasons, they were right there this year.

If they improve by this time in 2025, a trip to Sin City could certainly be in the cards for the Silver & Black. 

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