Spurs In-Depth Analysis: Will San Antonio Reach 20 Wins?

With 16 regular season games to go, the Spurs currently sit third-to-last in the NBA standings, but whether or not they reach the 20-win mark could be contingent on another factor.

As much as San Antonio Spurs fans had hoped they would avoid facing the sour reality that their team once again is in the midst of a lackluster year, it's hard to argue anything different 80 percent of the way into the season with only 16 wins.  

The Spurs currently sit third to last in the standings, with only 1.5 games standing between them and the best chance at the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft — otherwise known as the 7-5 giant named Victor Wembanyama. 

And while things do not appear to be trending in any sort of positive direction record-wise, there is one question facing the team worth exploring: 

Will the San Antonio Spurs achieve 20 wins this season?

Many will recall coach Gregg Popovich's warning issued to fans at the beginning of the season, where he made clear the status of his team ahead of the season was not championship caliber.

"Nobody here should go to Vegas with the thought of betting on us to win that championship," he said. 

Despite his statement lowering the expectations of the team, the sheer lack of wins is something that would be alarming to any franchise. 

With a 16-49 record, the Spurs are on pace to finish with 20 wins, which would mark the worst season since 1996-97. 

San Antonio's draft pick following that season? A 6-10 center from Wake Forest named Tim Duncan. 

That certainly raises some hope at the prospect of bringing Wembanyama to San Antonio, but what exactly has been the reason for the Spurs' complete meltdown? 

For one, their offensive ranking is better than just one team — Charlotte — while committing a turnover percentage ranked in the bottom five of the league.

Their true shooting percentage has not done them any favors, either, as they sit fourth to last in the league at 55.4 percent. The Spurs lacked the ability to outscore their opponents on a consistent basis, which has been revealed even through some of San Antonio's stars. 

After a nearly-40 percent clip from behind the arc for veteran guard Keldon Johnson made him a clear threat from distance, his shooting percentage has seen a significant decline this season. 

On defense, the Spurs have given up the most points in the paint out of any other team in the league — likely the main reason for their league-worst defensive rating. 

Shooting guard Devin Vassell also played a big role in the Spurs' lack of success. Not because of his performance, however, but rather because of his lack of playing time. 

After undergoing surgery in January, Vassell was sidelined for a multiple weeks before finally making a return to the lineup against the Indiana Pacers last week. Before then, he had hit the double-digit mark during every game but one, and scored 20 or more in over half of his games. 

The 22-year old is averaging 19.2 points and 3.6 assists, and since coming back, he has continued right where he left off. 

Since being drafted by San Antonio in 2020, his numbers have only increased, which serves as a testament to what Jeff Garcia — host of the Locked On Spurs podcast — has deemed the alternative goal of this season has been for the Spurs.

"Fans are forgetting that there is another assignment this season," Garcia said. "I think for the most part, they understand that it was going to be a bad season ... but now, late in the season, fans are fighting ... [they need to] understand that the other assignment is player development." 

Garcia's point holds true for every team in the league. More playing time as a team leads to more developed players who have more experience, which in turn leads to more confidence and better performance, and for the young Spurs, earning experience is imperative.

Garcia discussed the issue with James Pledger, who attested to the emphasis the Spurs are placing on developing their young guys like Jeremy Sochan and Charles Bassey.

"The way the NBA season is structured, you don't have as many practices anymore," Pledger said. "Games have become basically practices for the San Antonio Spurs ... you're watching certain instances within games, you can't watch the totality of the game."

Bassey and Sochan have averaged 5.8 and 10.6 points, respectively, and Sochan — the No. 9 overall pick in 2021 — even managed to be named to the rising stars game during All-Star weekend.

It is obvious that the young duo, among other players on San Antonio's roster, have been getting experience this season. 

"The problem is the players want to win," Pledger said. "Their job is not to lose." 

That mindset makes it extremely plausible for San Antonio to reach 20 wins, though the willingness of the coaches to support that mindset over their own development-focused one is a different story.

Especially with the addition of Vassell back into the lineup, the Spurs are in a better position now than they were midseason to put together a string of wins, and if the Spurs' defensive unit can lock down the paint, they could become a much different team — though whether or not that becomes the case is undecided.

Regardless, Wembanyama or not, the Spurs' young core has stepped up and both proven its worth and ability to be coached, which makes all the difference. 

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