Luck and Lottery: Are Spurs NBA's Luckiest Team?

The Spurs have had six total appearances in the NBA Draft Lottery, and while they may not be atop the list of "lucky" teams statistically, the impact of their picks make them a strong contender for the league's luckiest team of all-time.

The NBA Draft Lottery has been particularly kind to the San Antonio Spurs in years past. 

Fans will remember quite fondly some of the biggest names to grace San Antonio through the lottery system, the most recent being rookie Jeremy Sochan, who went ninth overall to the Spurs a year ago. 

Long before him, however, NBA greats like Tim Duncan, Sean Elliot and David Robinson made their way to the Lone Star state and left their mark on Spurs history. This year, San Antonio is hoping to bring in another top prospect in Victor Wembanyama, and if it ends up being successful, it could mean more than just grabbing the draft's best player. 

It could make the Spurs the luckiest lottery team in the NBA. 

.@MichelleDBeadle, ping pong ball expert 🫡

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As it stands, the Spurs have a 40.1 percent chance at picking in the top three, marking their highest draft position since 1997 — the year that Duncan came to town. 

That year, the Spurs gained two spots through the lottery, as they would have picked third without the system, and had it been that way, current Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups might have been a Spur. 

Most called the Spurs lucky for getting Duncan at the time they did, especially given the immediate turnaround that coach Gregg Popovich saw in his first full season at the helm of the franchise. Duncan brought the Spurs 36 additional wins and a playoff berth in his rookie season, making an early statement in what would become a Hall-of-Fame career. 

As CBS Sports concluded, the Spurs have had their fair share of statistical luck when it comes to the draft lottery. 

"The Spurs are the only team in lottery history never to move down," the site wrote. "They've moved up three times and done well with all three picks: [drafting] David Robinson, Sean Elliott and Tim Duncan."

But lucky may have been an understatement. 

San Antonio has only been in the lottery six times in NBA history, and three of the six picks ended up bringing the Spurs to either a championship, or at least numerous playoff appearances. 

Duncan was pivotal to the Spurs' five titles, teaming up with Tony Parker and Manu Ginóbili to bring San Antonio success like it had never seen before. Before that, Robinson — the Spurs' 1987 lottery pick — got the ball rolling and finally got the job done with Duncan in 1999, and again in 2003. 

Their history with luck and lottery is much different than the statistical leaders of the category, however. 

The Philadelphia 76ers have the highest net gain of any team in the league historically, with a league-leading plus-24 margin in upward movement. That largely came from five different occurrences in which they moved up by three spots or more versus their draft placement without the lottery system. 

With those placement increases, Philadelphia has also drafted its fair share of NBA legends. Allen Iverson, Shawn Bradley and even current Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse all went to the 76ers via the lottery, but even a team with a 10-point difference in net gain over any other team has moved down a couple of times, grabbing Joel Embiid and De'Aaron Fox in 2014 and 2017, respectively. 

Despite its numerous appearances, however, Philadelphia hasn't won a title since the the lottery system was instated in 1985, making the idea of luck more subjective to each player's impact on their teams rather than numbers or a franchise's draft order. 

"Correlation between overall lottery 'luck' and on-court success over the past four decades is fairly minimal," CBS Sports wrote. "Yes, there are specific examples of teams like the Spurs using a few lucky lotteries as launching pads into years of contention, but there are far more examples of teams ... who outperformed expectations in the lottery and couldn't translate those results into wins." 

When all said and done, the Spurs sit third all-time among teams in the Draft Lottery with a perfect gain to number of appearances ratio, but while they may not have the best "luck" of all-time in numbers, it certainly feels like they have on the court, especially when their third lottery pick helped bring San Antonio five titles. 

Now, the Spurs have another shot at a No. 1 pick. Wembanyama is likely to bring change to whichever team he joins, bringing size, versatility on the boards and even shooting — which sets him apart from others of his stature. 

San Antonio isn't a lock to draft the 7-2 center with the top pick, but they certainly will be looking to do so, and if he is anything like Duncan, Robinson or Elliot, the Spurs may be feeling lucky all over again. 

The 2023 NBA Draft Lottery is set for Tuesday evening at 7:00 p.m.

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