Nuggets Heavily Expected to Advance Past Suns

FiveThirtyEight's advanced simulations say the Phoenix Suns don't stand much of a chance against the Denver Nuggets.

The Phoenix Suns were able to successfully advance past the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Now, a second-round date with the Denver Nuggets is on the horizon. 

Denver finished as the West's No. 1 seed with a 53-29 record, leading the league in field goal percentage at 50.4%. 

Much like the Suns, the Nuggets made quick work of their first-round opponents, advancing past the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games. With names such as Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, the series to determine who will advance to the Western Conference Finals is up for anybody's grasp.

FiveThirtyEight suggests the Nuggets have far more of an advantage, however. In their simulations, Denver has a 66% chance of advancing to the next round (Phoenix obviously has the other 34%). 

More on how the projections are formed from FiveThirtyEight:

"These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team. A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. A team’s current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game."

Having homecourt advantage might just make the difference for the Nuggets in what is expected (by humans at least) to be a close series. 

Denver has the second-highest percentage to reach the NBA Finals at 38% probability, trailing just the Boston Celtics (40%). The Suns' 16% sits behind Denver, Los Angeles (17%) and Golden State (23%).