2022 NBA Draft: Paolo Banchero Scouting Report
In this era of basketball, everyone is encouraged to dribble past the timeline. With dribble penetrations, perimeter spacing, and pick-and-roll play at the top of the menu – teams are looking to divvy their ball play past the guard positions. Paolo Banchero checks the boxes as a jumbo on-ball creator.
Finishing as the No. 4 prospect on ESPN’s recruiting board, Banchero headlined Mike Krzyzewski’s final recruiting class at Duke. In his tenure with the Wildcats, the forward lived up to his high-school praise, entering this year’s draft in contention for a Top 3 selection.
Collegiate Stats:
Measurables:
As a ball-handler, Banchero is bigger than the average competition. And, at 19 years old, he’s already entering the draft with an NBA-ready body. At 6-foot-10, 250 pounds, Banchero carries a near-identical profile to 2014 lottery pick Julius Randle, who came in at 6-foot-9, 250 pounds. Banchero’s build is uncommon for his playstyle, particularly from the get-go, giving him a great base to develop at the four spot. To tag along with his 6-foot-10 frame, his 7-foot-1 wingspan caters his size. However, his overall length is not earth-shattering for his position here.
Strengths:
+Ball-Handling
When breaking down what separates Paolo Banchero from the other No. 1 hopefuls in this class – it’s that he’s extremely well-tuned as a ball handler. Generally speaking, having a power forward capable of managing the ball in stints is a major plus, but Banchero is able to put the ball on a string and be a rotation’s lead ball handler if need be.
Banchero has a wide array of dribble moves in his bag. He has a tight handle that most in his position group lack, and he’s found some solid results using his current set of moves. He likes to go between the legs in the halfcourt setting, which helps open up his defender and create some shots in the mid-range. In positioning himself for drives, his moving crossover does the trick both to kickstart a size-up or catch the defender off guard for a jumper.
Adding to the forward’s arsenal, he’s able to get defenders out of position before putting the ball on the deck. Banchero has a very jab that will get defenders to lower their stance, subsequently opening up jumpshot opportunities. On the flipside, defenders may also shift their feet in anticipation of a drive. However, this early committal gives Banchero the gateway to work in isolation.
Finding a player at 6-foot-10 who you can trust as a ball-handler is a rarity. It’s even more so whenever that forward is 250 pounds and just 19 years old. Banchero’s dribbling sequences are much lengthier and more advanced than those in his position, making him a complicated matchup if he can shore up other elements of his game.
+Mid-Range Creation
Due to Banchero’s high levels of on-ball ability, he’s not only a threat when it comes to slashes, but also when it comes to the mid-range game. His hallmarked jab is the primary opening to his mid-range shots as he has a quick enough release to soar over his defenders, even off the slightest bite at a jab. Banchero liked to play with his food a bit off this part of his game, sometimes ripping out three-or-four jabs before initiating a jumper or placing the ball on the deck.
One of the top on-the-ball moves that got him into his mid-range game was out of a between-the-legs. This right-to-left dribble got him into position to immediately get into his shot and get attempts off with little-to-no contests.
Another add-on to his mid-range arsenal came in small doses but flashed signs of his dominance in this area of the floor. Working at the elbow and baseline, Banchero flashed off some turnaround jumpshots, sometimes over sweltering contests, and produced baskets. This type of shot seems minuscule in the grand scheme of things, but if mastered, it truly adds another ripple to his game – especially if pinned against mismatches in the short corner.
The art of the mid-range jumper has become more and more of a rarity since the rise of three-point analytics. However, adding a player such as Banchero, whose shown flashes creating in mid-range pull-ups and quick-trigger turnarounds, adds another dimension in late-shot clock situations.
+ Attacking the Basket
As a finisher around the basket, Banchero does a great job both in the halfcourt and fastbreak settings. Banchero is a player who can isolate right at you and immediately rise up for shot attempts, but he’s a lot more meticulous in that process. When driving, he excels in controlling the pace of play as he may get a half step on a defender off an angle and fully take them out with a pump fake and pivot under the rim. These two small additions make him a lot more slithery as a finisher as with his build and overall strength, his patience allows him to garner high-quality takes at the cup.
When looking to go right at defenders, Banchero is still very good in this craft. He has the strength to go at defenders and absorb hits on layups, but he’s also shown the ability to slash from either side of the iron efficiently.
One of Banchero’s greatest assets is his spin move gather. He’ll take the basketball downhill, get into the teeth of the defense and completely break away off this spin. His speed when slashing is a big plus as is, but when he’s able to change directions so fast as he does with this move – it makes him even more of a threat. Banchero has even worked on this ability as he’s worked on half spins under the basket to create angles as well.
In transition, Banchero’s above-the-rim play also fetches some eyes. He’s a sneaky good lob threat who can keep up going the other way, and with Duke playing at a slow pace for most of the season – chances are this area would be highlighted even further had he attended another program.
+ Operating the Pick and Roll
The value of high-ball screens has soared astronomically in the new stages of perimeter play. Because of this, teams are looking to maximize the number of options that can orchestrate and get you a bucket coming off a screen. Paolo showed some success with his combination of on-ball and passing ability with the Blue Devils.
Because of his aforementioned ability to quickly pop jumpshots coming off crossover moves, there’s already an innate tendency for Banchero to take shots in the mid-range. When he’s getting a screen at the top-of-the-key, his mid-range potential is inflated. Most teams elected to play drop coverage on Banchero this season, mitigating drives in exchange for three-point attempts. However, he did still poke around the foul line as he did a good job shielding his initial matchup off a hedge and shooting over the top of his matchup.
To bode with his work creating jumpers out of screens, his slashing ability also gets additional run coming out of screens as he does an excellent job with his moving spin to shed defenders who were late to rotate.
As someone readily looking to attack the basket, it’s practically a requirement at this point to be a sound player in drive-and-kicks. Banchero greatly improved in this area with Duke as he had success finding players at the corner and hitting interior players while navigating the top-of-the-key.
+ Crafty Passer
One of the more underrated parts of Banchero’s game roots from his ability to play make for others. As aforementioned, he’s a very good passer when penetrating to the basket, but his vision goes beyond rotations to the paint.
When working in the post, Banchero does a great job scanning the floor, especially when help defense collapses in on him. In these cases, he's able to find the open player off the double, primarily ending in a basket for center Mark Williams.
He does an excellent job starting the fastbreak as he’s able to grab and go with the ball, whether he’s looking to go coast-to-coast himself or throw an outlet pass. On multiple occasions, Banchero showed off his passing ability in transition, dialing up near-full court kickouts to his teammates.
In the cases that Banchero was scanning the floor, you can see the roots of a solid passer. He does a good job finding frontcourt pieces. He’s a competent operator in transition. And he doesn’t get frazzled too often when pressured.
+ Three-Level Scoring Potential / Amplified Isolation Game
The blueprint is laid out for Banchero to be an effective on-ball isolator. Even in his current form, he ranks atop the class as an on-ball creator. He has a well-versed palate of handles, a strong blend of footwork and on-court vision when slashing, and his mid-range has yielded positive results. However, his work from three will help improve his offensive game tenfold.
As of now, Banchero is a player who is more suited as an on-ball creator. In off-ball situations, it’d be wise to place him at the elbow for turnarounds or at the right wing for triples. However, a refined perimeter opened up his spacing, his off-ball potential, and overall game in isolation.
When in dire need of a basket, Banchero is a good creator. He can get you to bite on a jab, slash, or pop, and yield some solid looks under the circumstance. If he’s able to perfect his three-ball, he’s not a threat to stepback and pop, shoot over screens, and play perfectly as a secondary ball-handler. The three-ball is the major swing factor in his role moving forward.
Areas of Improvement:
- Shooting Consistency
Banchero shot 33.8% on threes this season, averaging 3.3 attempts in these contests. In the NCAA Tournament, he starred, shooting 10-of-20 (50.0%) from distance. His strong ending remarks made him a three-level threat and a top player in the tournament. The kicker is his hot stretch didn’t tell the full story as his outputs and percentages were flaky the entire season, handing his stats a bit of an asterisk.
Based on Banchero’s mid-range game, it’s clear to see his shot mechanics are sound. He gets his shot off in a timely manner, and there are no woes with release point. It ultimately comes down to reps.
If Banchero were to handle out of high-ball screens, teams may be wise to test his abilities from deep as he shot 14-of-52 (26.9%) on top-of-the-key triples this season.
The forward excelled from the corner, albeit on minimal reps, shooting 13-of-21 (61.9%) from the corners. The right wing became his perimeter sweet shot shooting 11-of-28 (29.3%) from this range while stooping to a 4-of-25 (16.0%) output at the left wing.
The shooting column is the primary swing factor for Banchero as if he’s able to establish his three-point play, not only does he blossom as a potential off-ball piece but also as an even more difficult one-on-one matchup.
- Defensive Awareness
Figuratively speaking, Banchero is a light switch on the defensive end. He has the ideal build to take on forwards and smaller fives with his 6-foot-10, 250-pound frame. However, he had a good amount of defensive lapses at Duke.
Banchero fell victim to ball watching often when operating under the basket. When players went on the attack in the post, he got dazed at times, staying glued to the ball-handler while his man produced on the baseline. Other lapses on penetrations were in the cards with the opposite effect as he stayed locked to his man instead of giving some assistance.
He’s a risky player when it comes to playing on passing lanes. If a pass is his general facility, he’s willing to make a play for the ball. This same mentality can trickle into his on-ball defense as he can get caught being a bit too physical via reaching.
There’s another side of the coin with Banchero’s defensive ability as he had solid flashes, notably diving for loose balls and contesting shots as a help-side defender. Banchero is not a great perimeter defender on guards, especially on the first few steps. However, he did shed some ability to recover and make a play off a contest.
- Decision Making versus Help Defense
Banchero is a really good decision maker when facing one-on-one situations. The issue presents itself when extra defensive artillery is added on isolations. Banchero has the tendency to drive right coming off a top-of-the-key isolation. When there is no help, he’s an excellent slasher from point A to point B. However, when help defense is brought from the right wing, his playmaking ability is stifled significantly.
Banchero ended the season averaging 2.4 turnovers per contest. In on-ball situations, you can chalk some of those miscues to these right-side slashes. His normally tight handle stifles a bit, seemingly going into improv mode. Loose behind-the-back moves and a handle far too close to help resulted in the ball going the other way. Moving forward, he’ll need to be able to read pressure off his initial first few dribbles as his passing ability strengthens the closer he gets to the iron.
- Touch Around the Basket
Generally speaking, Banchero is a very good finisher in this year’s draft. He possesses the ability to score driving from either side. Though, there is a right-sided preference. But he can also pick you apart with secondary moves such as moving spins. The one caveat is when he looks to drive head-on with defenders.
Banchero is subject to some clashes around the basket. However, he can get the whistle blown for lowering his shoulder on backdown attempts. This physicality can also lead to him taking layups on sweltering contests.
This is not a major point of concern as he got the whistle blowing for nearly five foul tries per game (4.8 FTA.) However, some added vigilance around the cup would improve his shot selection and keep him out of foul trouble.
Overall:
Paolo Banchero is a unique prospect as a playmaking four. In the modern NBA, a lot of ball-handling power forwards were selected as small forwards, fit the measurables of a four, and played up a few sizes. That is not the case with Banchero. He has the NBA-ready body of a four and the makings of a good one-on-one scorer at the next level.
There will be a few strides he’ll need to make, particularly as a three-point scorer and as a vigilant defender, but he checks a lot of boxes normal fours don't possess at age 19.
His combination of size, strength, ball-handling, passing vision, and mid-range creation make him a player bound to make an impact as a scorer in the league. The biggest determining factor will come in how many reps he receives on-ball – and this may be correlated to his progression as a sharpshooter. He’s able to get you a bucket in late-clock scenarios, and he’s able to produce foul attempts around the basket. Those are two qualities heavily sought after, and with a three-level threat – those boundaries are pushed significantly.
Banchero is a great rebounder, and in his reps playing up-tempo – he should be a premier fastbreak piece, whether as a playmaker or rim runner. Defensively, there are enough bright spots to believe he’ll be a sound frontcourt defender.
Ceiling: High-Scoring All-Star Forward
For how the power forward spot has changed, Paolo Banchero is just about as well-rounded as you could ask for a 19-year-old at this spot. He carries so much talent as an on-ball creator, slasher, and playmaker that there shouldn’t be a major rookie wall stepping into the league – making him a potential betting favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Playing atop his skill group could be the theme beyond year one as he fills the role of a playmaking four that is so heavily sought after. If his shot gets to a head, defending him in isolation and coming off a screen is a hard ask. He already has a great jumpshot and handles to rise up and shoot off a pull-up, but an added stepback with an effective three-ball would be treacherous for opponents – making him the quintessential creator at the four. This three-level ability would make playing screens a complex question as you’d be burnt in drop coverage and torched if a flat-footed big is switched onto him.
The recipe for success is there for Banchero. There are just a few missing ingredients. With a few extra touches, you’re looking at a scary self-creator who could also star in a second-fiddle role as a playmaker.
For prospective teams, pushing Banchero to play from distance will be pivotal. The interior game is not of concern, and his mid-range operation has no glaring flaws. It’s all about spreading his wings on triples. Whether it’s playing him as a catch-and-shoot option at the wing or testing him to shoot when defenders play under on screens – the boundary needs to be pushed for every drop of potential to be realized. If it comes to fruition, he’ll be a big-time offensive cog for a long time.
Floor: Ball-Handling Four → High-Level Starter
Even if there is little-to-no progression as a defender or shooter – Banchero is going to be an uber-efficient slasher and rebounder at the next level. He creates enough space off his drives to score on layups or create for his teammates off a kick-out. To pair with this, he should be a foul magnet when he’s slashing due to his footwork and overall strength when taking contact.
If there’s no clear resolution in his three, he’s still a threat who you can dump the ball to in the mid-range for turnaround or call upon pick-and-roll reps to slash or pull-up in the mid-range. Ideally, you want Banchero to be a complete off-ball piece. However, he’s still a very special talent with that third-level stripped. Does it push his ceiling tenfold? Absolutely. But, he’s still a damaging ball-handler who can fetch you a double-double on a consistent basis.
Projection: All-Star Power Forward
Paolo Banchero is a special offensive talent. His seasoned mid-range game and shot mechanics make him a player who should be able to be a competent three-level scorer. As a ball-handler, he has the handling ability that requires a team's “swiss-army knife” defender who is handsy at the perimeter, can cut off driving angles, and contest on the interior. Even when faced with a team’s primary defender, Banchero is someone who should be able to yield some success working on the deck, and if stifled with his shot, his passing vision should come in handy.
Banchero’s physical nature on both sides of the floor may need a few tweaks, but his energy level is a plus. He’ll be able to create fouls inside, and with a jumper, his net of foul methods should increase. This hustle caters towards his rebounding efforts, as he’ll be a good transition player as a self-creator or outlet passer.
Defensively, Banchero should be sound. His weak-side play and moments of success switched onto guards are enough to believe he’ll hold up when faced against heavy screen-setting teams, which is a good sum in today’s NBA.
With the ball in his hands, Banchero is a player who’ll be able to get a bucket. Off the ball, he’ll make a significant impact even as an average three-point player.
In terms of role, Banchero is a player slotted as a secondary playmaker who can be entrusted with a high volume of on-ball situations when needed. He’s the ideal archetype to play as the co-star to a backcourt piece.
