Why OKC Thunder Can Live With Nikola Topic's Absence Next Season

Although warning signs of injuries and a certain redshirt season made teams weary of drafting NIkola Topic, his high potential was worth the risk for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Jun 26, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Nikola Topic poses for photos with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected in the first round by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2024 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Well this is a little bit of deja vu, isn't it?

Two years ago, Chet Holmgren was selected with the No. 2 overall pick by the Oklahoma City Thunder but later suffered a Lisfranc injury in the offseason that set him out his entire "true" rookie campaign. Now in the 2024 NBA Draft, it selected Nikola Topic with the No. 12 pick, who is set to miss his own rookie campaign with a torn ACL that he sustained in the Adriatic League playoffs.

Waiting an entire year for Holmgren to debut was tough to deal with, yet it didn't sway the Thunder away from taking the Serbian guard with its lottery pick over plenty of quality options on the board. While it can be confusing to go through that again on paper, its position compared to two seasons ago and the potential in the pick makes it a reasonable decision.

Oklahoma City is unquestionably in a win-now position, coming off of a No. 1-seeded campaign and second-round loss to the eventual Western Conference finalist Dallas Mavericks. The unfortunate truth about this year's draft is that there aren't a lot of win-now players to be had, accentuated by the position it sat in. No player was going to make all that much of a drastic impact or receive a significant role already, so the redshirt year Topic will be required to not impact the team all that much.

If anything, his debut in the following season could make a bigger impact.

Before his ACL injury, Topic was in conversations to be a top-three pick in this class. Stripping away the worry for future injuries, he has all of the tools to be a worthwhile pick by the Thunder for the long-term future.

The 18-year-old averaged 18.8 points, 7.2 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game last season in Serbia, demonstrating a clear ability to be a high-IQ playmaker and perimeter threat. Passing is his biggest strength, which is a big area Oklahoma City general manager Sam Presti has sought to improve during the offseason. It may take a while to see it, but he brings a skillset that could be useful in its bench guard rotation.

The most obvious comparison being drawn from Topic is of course, Josh Giddey. They both share a similar archetype of a tall guard who takes pride in their playmaking ability, so it's natural to immediately draw that comparison. However, a big strength for Topic is his ability to convert opportunities at the rim, which Giddey has struggled to do throughout his career.

Topic's scoring potential is much higher than Giddey's, even in regards to the perimeter. He wasn't simply drafted to just replace the now Chicago Bull, but he could still fill in a similar role that Giddey provided as a jumbo-guard and secondary playmaker to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And as the youngest player selected in the first round, he has plenty of time to fulfill that.

The pick doesn't come without its risks. Topic could easily struggle to adjust to the NBA or much less stay on the court, resulting in a misfire by the Thunder. Still, there's a high ceiling he could reasonably reach, given the length of time and other assets to take a chance on that. Not every team could take that risk, but it's able to have that luxury.

Even if Oklahoma City views itself as a championship contender at this very moment, its vastly young roster and stockpile of draft picks shape itself up to compete for the next decade. It can get win-now pieces in free agency, but if it couldn't find a better use for the No. 12 pick, then it might as well have used it on a player that could help it sustain success down the road.

As we saw with Holmgren, being sidelined for a year has its advantages. Topic will still be able to develop chemistry with his teammates throughout the season while getting a feel for the NBA game watching from the sidelines and working in practice. He'll learn the system, get comfortable in it and be prepared to instantly be integrated in it once his rookie campaign begins.

Although waiting on another rookie can be disappointing, Topic could also be a player worth the anticipation. There are obvious signs that he could be a key contributor for the Thunder down the road, especially if he can extend his offensive capabilities to the 3-point line. It'll be his time, we'll just have to wait a little longer than usual.

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