2024-25 OKC Thunder 3-Point Shot Selection: Good Process, Poor Results

The Thunder have recorded the NBA's fourth-worst 3-point percentage following last season's league-highest outside percentage despite similar shot quality.

Oct 30, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) shoots a 3-point basket over San Antonio Spurs guard Chris Paul (3) and forward Jeremy Sochan (10) during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder have started the 2024-25 season undefeated, winning all four games by 12 or more points while averaging 112.3 points per game, the 17th-most in the NBA.

The 2023-24 team's fourth-highest offensive rating has dropped by about seven points per 100 possessions so far this year due to slightly fewer offensive rebounds and a lower free throw rate. The most glaring drop, however, is a much less efficient shot offense.

Team Factor	2023-24 % (League Rank)	2024-25 % (League Rank)
eFG%	57.3 (3rd)	51.2 (23rd)
TOV%	11.4 (7th)	9.9 (3rd)
ORB%	21.1 (28th)	19.1 (27th)
FT Rate	19.8 (13th)	14.0 (29th)

Most rotation players — excluding Luguentz Dort and Chet Holmgren — have recorded a worse effective field goal percentage to kick off this season than they recorded last year. Only Aaron Wiggins, Holmgren, Ousmane Dieng and Dort have increased their 2-point percentage. Team 2-point attempts leaders Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have combined for 50.0% on 106 attempts after making 57.6% of their 1,970 attempts last season.

Oklahoma City's struggles inside the arc have come simultaneously with outside shooting woes.
Dort has shot a scorching 11-for-19 (57.9%) from downtown through four games, but every other Thunder player with five or more attempts has tallied a worse 3-point percentage than last season. Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Wiggins, a trio that all shot above 40% from deep in the 2023-24 campaign, have combined for an anemic four makes on 30 attempts so far.

The good news for the Thunder: a four-game sample cannot determine team 3-point quality because of limited volume. The team shot 22.2% and 20.0% on 3-point attempts in their first two games but went a combined 33-for-81 (40.7%) against the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.

Oklahoma City is the most selective outside shooting team in the league, taking a vast majority of their 3-point shots with open or wide-open coverage. Their 33.0% 3-point percentage with the closest defender six or more feet away is the fourth-lowest in the league behind the Houston Rockets, Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers.

Closest Defender	2023-24 3PA (3PT%)	2024-25 3PA (3PT%)
0-2 feet	0-for-2 (0%)	0-for-0 (N/A)
2-4 feet	34-for-117 (29.1%)	0-for-6 (0%)
4-6 feet	302-for-842 (35.9%)	16-for-51 (31.4%)
6+ feet	754-for-1,844 (40.9%)	33-for-100 (33.0%)

Williams, Holmgren, Caruso and Wallace have recorded a combined 6-for-39 (15.4%) on wide-open 3-point attempts. This output inspires optimism moving forward because they are proven shooters taking good looks — as evidenced by their combined 316-for-732 (43.2%) 2023-24 wide-open 3-point total.

Wallace has shot 1-for-9 on catch-and-shoot triples after making 44.2% of his 206 catch-and-shoot attempts last season. His open left-corner airball against the Hawks after Gilgeous-Alexander executed a smooth drive-and-kick encapsulates Oklahoma City's cumulative despondency despite quality outside looks.

The Thunder take on the Portland Trail Blazers tonight at 9 p.m. CST.

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