Breaking Down the OKC Thunder's NBA Cup Situation

The Thunder have a couple of different scenarios to advance past the group stage.

Nov 15, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; An overall view of the Oklahoma City Thunder's NBA Cup Court before the game against the Phoenix Suns at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Oklahoma City will need some help to advance in the NBA Cup. 

On Friday, the Thunder will be in Crypto.com Arena for their third NBA Cup group stage matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. In a matchup on one-loss teams, Friday’s contest is effectively an elimination game. 

With only two days of group stage action left, every remaining game is significant. The Thunder’s matchup against the Lakers is the only game in West Group B on Friday. Assuming the Thunder win, they will need to get some help in Tuesday’s slate of game. 

On Tuesday, the Thunder will host the Utah Jazz in a game that should be a relatively easy win. Beyond that, Oklahoma City will need the Phoenix Suns to beat the San Antonio Spurs to win the group. 

The winner of that Suns-Spurs matchup would tie with the Thunder for group winner. However, the Thunder only hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix. 

Point differential won’t come into play for group standings for Oklahoma City, but it will be critical for the Thunder if the Spurs win the group. 

Along with the three group winners, one wild card from each conference will advance. Considering there are no intergroup matchups, point differential is the supreme tiebreaker. 

The Thunder’s fiercest competition for the wild card spot is the Dallas Mavericks, who have a +41 differential with one game remaining. They are the only potential wild card from Group C. While there are a couple of one-loss teams in Group A, neither has a positive point differential through two games, making them unlikely to compete for the final spot. 

The NBA Cup can seem somewhat complicated, particularly given its newness. However, the situation for Oklahoma City is still straightforward. 

The Thunder need to win out and have the Suns beat the Spurs to win their group. Even if the Thunder can win their group, the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors are currently unbeaten and could finish ahead of the Thunder, forcing them to go on the road for their first knockout matchup.

Meanwhile, winning out is also the easiest path forward in the wild card race. Assuming the Thunder win out, they would need Dallas to lose its final game, or they will need to make up some serious ground in point differential in the final two contests.

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