Can the OKC Thunder Perform Better in Clutch Situations Next Season?

After struggling in late-game situations last season, the Thunder need to make some changes to improve in that area.

Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder made remarkable strides in many areas, but finishing games still needs work.

Young teams often struggle to close games, but the Thunder’s high expectations moving forward will require them to grow up fast. More than half of the Thunder’s games last season featured a clutch situation.

A clutch game is defined as a game within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime. Out of the 43 games Oklahoma City had to play clutch minutes, it only won 17. That was good for the fifth-worst record in clutch games in 2022-23.

For the Thunder to improve next season, their late-game offense must become more efficient. The Thunder posted an offensive rating of 98.3 in clutch situations last season. Only the 22-60 Houston Rockets finished with a worse offensive rating.

With an elite scorer like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, having a competent late-game offense would seem like a given. However, using him too much may have made the Thunder too predictable at times.

Gilgeous-Alexander took 93 shots in clutch time, more than Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort, who round out the top three, combined. Although Gilgeous-Alexander shot poorly from the field, his ability to draw fouls and get free throws was a bright spot, as he shot 91.1% from the line.

While any bright spots for Oklahoma City’s offense were hard to come by, its defense gives reason for optimism going into the 2023-24 season. Oklahoma City’s defense was top 10 in clutch minutes last season and did much of the work for the team in tight games.

The Thunder continued to be one of the best in the league at forcing turnovers in late-game scenarios. Creating transition opportunities was one of the most important aspects of the Thunder’s offense last season, and replicating that approach in crunch time helped the team tremendously.

Of the four players who played at least 100 minutes of clutch time last season, only one had a positive plus-minus. Dort was a plus-one in his 147 minutes in the clutch, further illustrating the importance of defense in those situations.

Despite playing a similar amount of minutes, none of Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey and Jalen Williams had a plus-minus better than -25. Although plus-minus is not a perfect measure, it does help show the constant struggles that Oklahoma City displayed throughout the season.

Chet Holmgren’s return from injury will aid some of those struggles. While Holmgren is sure to slot in perfectly on defense and help the Thunder maintain a top-10 clutch defense, his offense may be a more significant addition.

The Thunder led the league by a wide margin in percentage of clutch points scored in the paint. Nearly half of the Thunder’s scoring came on the inside, where Holmgren will be playing next season.

If the Thunder can continue to reach that area of the floor, Holmgren’s size will be helpful. Drivers can dump the ball off to the seven-footer rather than trying to finish in traffic against players a few inches taller than them.

Adding Holmgren’s size could be enough to take the Thunder from one of the worst clutch teams to one of the best. Whether it be because of him or anything else, if the Thunder can become an elite late-game team, they could ascend to the top of the league earlier than expected.

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