Can the Thunder Make the Play-In Tournament?

The Oklahoma City Thunder are already defying expectations this year, but can they push the boundaries and compete for a spot in the Play-In Tournament?

Before the 2022-23 season, many thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to finish near the bottom of the league. In the preseason, BetMGM, a popular online sportsbook, had set an over-under of 23.5 wins for the franchise. The Thunder have earned 14 wins through 32 games and need to win 10 of their next 50 games to beat those odds.

But not only can the Thunder defy expectations this season, but they could also really blow them out of the water. Oklahoma City is currently on pace to win 35 games this season, or an 11.5-game difference over BetMGM’s projected win total. While winning 35 games isn’t exciting on the surface, it could earn the Thunder a spot in the NBA’s novel Play-In Tournament.

Since the NBA permanently installed the current iteration of the Play-In, not to be confused with the pilot version introduced in 2019-20, teams with the 7th-to-10th best record, in their respective conferences, must compete to determine who will be awarded the seventh and eighth seed in the NBA Playoffs. But the format is different from the NBA Playoffs.

Here is how it works. The ninth-place team and tenth-place square off in a single-game elimination round. And then the seventh-place team hosts the eighth-place team in a “double-chance” game where the eighth-place team must earn back-to-back victories to secure the seventh seed in the Playoffs. Subsequently, the loser of that game plays the winner of the ninth-versus-tenth game in another single-elimination bout to determine the eighth seed.

In 2020-21, the first year of the permanent Play-In, both the Charlotte Hornets and San Antonio Spurs emerged from each conference with the tenth-best record. Each team won 33 games but lost their matches against the teams with the ninth-best record. In 2021-22, both the Hornets and the Spurs emerged as the tenth-place teams again, earning a consecutive trip to the Play-In. In that year, the Hornets won 43 games and the Spurs won 34.

If you do the math, the median amount of wins recorded by tenth-place teams entering the Play-In is just 33.5 games. That’s all it took, on average, for teams to earn an opportunity to compete for an eighth seed in the NBA Playoffs.

And as mentioned before, the Thunder are on track to win 35 games. Will they keep up the pace is another question, but there is no question that the franchise is within striking distance of making the Play-In tournament. But there are obstacles.

Currently, the Thunder hold the 12th-best record in the Western Conference with 14 wins. They just need to jump two teams before the end of the season to earn a Play-In berth. But sitting above them are several seasoned teams, though.

Sitting 11th in the standings are the Golden State Warriors and their accomplished trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. And according to BetMGM, they hold the third-best odds to win the Western Conference. It’s highly unlikely that this will be one of the teams overcome by the Thunder.

Just above the Warriors are the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Donic, as well as the Minnesota Timberwolves, led by a resurgence from D’Angelo Russell and the up-and-coming Anthony Edwards. Both teams are tied with 16 wins, just two more wins than the Thunder. But it’s hard to envision the talented Timberwolves, who have bested Oklahoma City in three of four matches this year, and the Doncic-led Mavericks 0f winning fewer games than the Thunder.

Perhaps two of those teams might come from the group that currently holds the sixth, seventh, and eighth-best records. That’s the Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers, and Sacramento Kings. While the stories of loyalty, beams, and underdogs are fun, the season is long and anything can happen.

Still, for the Thunder to have a chance at making it to the Play-In, they will have to find a way to make up some ground in the win-loss column. They are currently two games behind the ninth-place Mavericks and three games behind the eighth-place Jazz. And if early season play is any indication of how teams will perform moving forward, the Thunder have their work cut out for them.

Right now, it seems the Thunder might need to win about 36 or 37 games to earn the 10th-best record in the Western Conference. That amounts to them winning 44% or 46%, or 22 or 23, of their next 50 games – a tall task for the youngest team in the NBA.

But there is hope. According to Tankathon, the Thunder have the 22nd-easiest remaining schedule in the league. And moves can be made. Should the Thunder decide to make a push for the Play-In, General Manager Sam Presti has an exorbitant amount of assets he can use to make the necessary trades to put the team in a more competitive position.

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