Chet Holmgren is OKC Thunder's Best Bet to Win 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year

Chet Holmgren provided the Thunder with crucial defensive impact during his rookie season and should be even better this year.

Chet Holmgren is pictured during the Thunder media day at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. / NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 2024-25 Thunder roster includes many defensive stalwarts. Alex Caruso and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander read passing lanes and force plenty of turnovers, while Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace and Jalen Williams effectively contain perimeter players.

None stand taller or make a bigger difference than Chet Holmgren.

The 7-foot-1, 213-pound force of nature entered the NBA as a tantalizing defensive prospect, with a 12.6% block percentage, a 7.5 defensive box plus-minus, and 3.1 defensive win shares in his lone college season at Gonzaga. After a summer Lisfranc injury that forced him to miss his scheduled rookie year, Holmgren affirmed his incoming reputation in all 82 games last season. The rookie averaged 2.3 blocks per game and held opponents to an 11.4% worse rim field-goal percentage than their averages on his 13.3 rim contests per 100 possessions, which improved to opponents shooting 14.9% worse at the rim during the playoffs.

The Thunder improved their 14th-lowest defensive rating in the 2022-23 season to the fourth-lowest last season, allowing two fewer points per 100 possessions despite a league-wide offensive jump. The team recorded a 105.6 playoff defensive rating with Holmgren on the floor, holding opponents to a 48.7% 2-point percentage. He filled and overflowed a massive Thunder hole at the center position.

Holmgren did not make either All-Defensive Team last season, but oddsmakers are giving him more favorable chances to become the 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year. He has the fourth-highest odds in the league, which range from +1200 to +1800 on five big sportsbooks — an implied 5.3-7.7% shot. (DISCLAIMER: BET AT YOUR OWN RISK)

Comparing Holmgren's 2023-24 defense to previous Defensive Player of the Year winners requires much more than traditional statistics. Here are eight metrics that track defensive impact beyond an everyday box score.

Defensive Metric	Definition	Ideal Output
DRTG	Stands for defensive rating. Measures the number of points allowed per 100 possessions by a team.	Varies by season. The 2023-24 Timberwolves led the NBA with a 109.0 DRTG.
D-LEBRON	The defensive component within LEBRON (Luck-adjusted Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-off). Combines box score data with on-off impact data and incorporates various adjustments.	14 players last season surpassed the 2 D-LEBRON threshold, which indicates great defensive impact. Jonathan Isaac led the league with 2.9 D-LEBRON. Just 14 player seasons since 2010 have reached at least 4 D-LEBRON; 2020-21 Rudy Gobert recorded 5.1.
rTFOV	Stands for relative forced turnovers. Measures steals + offensive fouls drawn per 100 possessions, relative to the league average.	Favors perimeter defenders. Anything exceeding 2.0 rTFOV is elite.
DWS	Stands for defensive win shares. Estimates the total number of wins contributed by a player due to their defense.	The 10 highest DWS totals all exceeded 4 last season, from first-place Rudy Gobert (5.8) to Paolo Banchero (4.0).
D-RAPM	The defensive component within RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus). Estimates a player's defensive contribution of points per 100 possessions. Relatively unbiased regarding playstyle.	11 players have totaled four-year D-RAPM peaks at or above 5.0, including current players Draymond Green, Alex Caruso, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
STOP%	Measures steals + offensive fouls drawn + blocks (recovered by the defense) per 100 possessions.	Anything around 4 STOP% is great, and anything around 5 STOP% is elite.
D-DPM	The defensive component within DPM (Daily Plus-Minus), created by the DARKO (Daily Adjusted and Regressed Kalman Optimized) system. Estimates defensive impact using machine learning techniques.	Rudy Gobert, Jusuf Nurkic and Draymond Green were the only players who reached at least 3 D-DPM last year.
D-RAPTOR	The defensive component within RAPTOR (Robust Algorithm using Player Tracking and On-off Ratings). Measures the number of points a player contributes to their team's defense per 100 possessions. RAPTOR is no longer updated as of June 2023, but we can still view past data.	13 player seasons since 1977 exceeded 6.0 D-RAPTOR, including multiple Rudy Gobert, Ben Wallace, David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon campaigns.

These metrics are much more helpful for analyzing defense than traditional counting stats, such as steals and blocks per game, because each team plays thousands of defensive possessions every season. Some players, such as prime Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green, wreak havoc by anticipating plays multiple seconds in advance and locking down multiple players in quick succession; those qualities are not reflected without impact metrics or watching film.

Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Giannis Antetokounmpo have won recent Defensive Player of the Year awards with relentless rim protection, making attempts more difficult and deterring them altogether. The eight biggest betting favorites to win the award this season are all big men, emphasizing the importance of quality interior defense.

Season	Winner	Team Defensive Rating	Notable Defensive Metrics
2014-15	Kawhi Leonard, Spurs	102.0 (2nd in NBA)	2.3 SPG, 3.5 D-LEBRON, 2.0 rTFOV
2015-16	Kawhi Leonard, Spurs	99.0 (1st in NBA)	5.5 DWS, 3.8 D-RAPM, 3.3 D-LEBRON
2016-17	Draymond Green, Warriors	104.0 (2nd in NBA)	6.4 STL+BLK%, 5.6 D-RAPM, 4.0 D-LEBRON
2017-18	Rudy Gobert, Jazz	103.9 (2nd in NBA)	3.7 STOP%, 4.9 D-RAPM, 4.0 D-LEBRON
2018-19	Rudy Gobert, Jazz	105.7 (2nd in NBA)	5.7 DWS, 4.1 D-DPM, 4.0 D-LEBRON
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks	102.9 (1st in NBA)	5.0 DWS, 3.3 D-DPM, 4.2 D-LEBRON
2020-21	Rudy Gobert, Jazz	108.3 (4th in NBA)	5.2 DWS, 5.1 D-LEBRON, 7.9 D-RAPTOR
2021-22	Marcus Smart, Celtics	106.9 (2nd in NBA)	3.7 DWS, 3.8 STOP%, 1.1 D-LEBRON
2022-23	Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies	111.2 (2nd in NBA)	9.6 BLK%, 3.8 DWS, 3.4 D-LEBRON
2023-24	Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves	109.0 (1st in NBA)	-13.4 Rim FG%, 5.8 DWS, 3.3 D-DPM

One encouraging trend and future factor for Holmgren's candidacy is team defensive rating, as nine out of the last 10 Defensive Players of the Year were on teams with the lowest or second-lowest defensive rating in the league. The only exception, 2020-21 Rudy Gobert, put together one of the most impactful defensive seasons ever. Oklahoma City finished percentage points behind the Celtics and Magic for the second-lowest defensive rating last season, but they have serious work cut out to catch the Timberwolves.

Victor Wembanyama is the overwhelming favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year next season, with negative odds that reach as low as -250 on BetMGM. (DISCLAIMER: BET AT YOUR OWN RISK)

Wembanyama taking home the award would likely buck the last decade's defensive rating trend, as the 2023-24 Spurs finished with a 116.4 defensive rating, the 22nd-lowest in the NBA.

Defensive Player of the Year voting unsurprisingly considers individual performance as well. 2021-22 Marcus Smart was the only winner in the last decade without overwhelming defensive metrics, as he primarily guards the perimeter, but those Celtics finishing with the league's second-lowest defensive rating gave him a case.

Holmgren's rookie season consisted of 4.4 DWS, 3.8 STOP%, 1.4 D-RAPM, 1.6 D-DPM, and 2.1 D-LEBRON, which all affirm his defensive impact but do not yet imply juxtaposition with previous Defensive Players of the Year, even including his rim protection percentages. An individual jump is necessary to catch Wembanyama and Gobert, who were impact monsters last season.

The Thunder are blessed to have Holmgren manning the middle, as indicated by their 2023-24 defensive rating and win total. He has already placed one piece of the award puzzle, now just needing slightly more natural improvement to become one of the NBA's most reputable defenders.

---

Want to join the discussion? Like Thunder on SI on Facebook and follow us on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest Thunder news. You can also meet the team behind the coverage.