Inside The Thunder

A Consolidation Trade is on The Horizon for Oklahoma City Thunder

A detailed look at why the Oklahoma City Thunder is likely to consolidate some assets and make a move in the trade market soon.

Dustin McLaughlin

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Depending on who you ask, the Oklahoma City Thunder are in year two or three of their rebuild, but that doesn’t matter. What matters is that the early returns on the Thunder’s investment in the draft is paying off sooner than expected, even though two of their top picks in the 2022 NBA Draft haven’t played much or at all.

According to Basketball Reference, the Thunder’s preseason odds were set at just 23.5 wins, highlighting exactly how Las Vegas books and fans around the league thought about the team’s trajectory. But just 43 games into the season, Oklahoma City has won 20 games and currently holds the 14th-best net rating.

Not only are the Thunder defying expectations, they are crushing them. Especially as of late. They have won nine of their last 14 games and are producing the sixth-best defensive rating and offensive rating, fourth-best assist percentage, seventh-lowest turnover percentage, all while recording the seventh-best pace. Per game, the Thunder have also converted on 39% of their 33.9 3-point attempts, good for fourth in the NBA.

While the team has started to play extremely well, some of their players haven’t performed quite the way many fans have hoped. And on a team chocked full of talent that has 12 players locked up through the 2024-25 season, a potential extension for Aleksej Pokusevski coming soon, and a possible seven draft picks across the next two years, the math indicates that a consolidation trade is virtually inevitable and will probably happen soon.

How soon? 

Well, the Thunder do not have to make a trade at all this year, but it might be in their best interest to do so. They could just sit tight until the end of the year, but they have a few decisions to make before the Feb. 9 trade deadline.

One of those decisions will be on Darius Bazley’s future in Oklahoma City. The fourth-year forward will be entering restricted free agency this coming summer but has underwhelmed offensively, producing 13.1 points per 36 minutes and a 51.1 true shooting percentage. While his uncoordinated drives and poor decision-making haunt him, his prowess on the defensive side of the ball might entice a front office to part with a second-round pick if the front office wants to part ways with Bazley.

And while Mike Muscala’s ability to stretch the floor has helped open up the Thunder’s offense at times, the ninth-year veteran doesn’t really fit the franchise’s timeline. Oklahoma City will hold the right to pay the soon-to-be 32 year old 3.5 million next year or let him walk. But perhaps a contender might find value in the inexpensive floor spacer and his built-in team option for next year.

Lu Dort could be the next big piece that General Manager Sam Presti might have to deal away. After signing him to a five-year, 82.5 million dollar contract, Dort is scoring just 13.9 points per game while converting just 40.3% of his shots from the field, 33.6% from behind the 3-point line, and has the fourth-lowest assist-to-usage ratio on the team.

It also doesn’t help that the Thunder’s recent lottery pick in Jalen Williams has outplayed Dort this year. And with limited minutes at the guard and wing positions, but an abundance of talent in guys like Tre Mann, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Ousmane Dieng, and whoever they might select in the 2023 NBA Draft, it might behoove Oklahoma City’s front office to move on from him to open up playing time and maximize the development of others.

Dort's contract is the second largest on the books, too. If the Thunder are wanting to reel in a big fish via the trade market, his 15.3 million owed this year and next would certainly help the franchise match the more expensive contracts around the league.

So, could Dort be traded before this season? 

It’s possible. Due to signing his new deal with the Thunder, the franchise was temporarily restricted from trading him, but that expired on Saturday night. The Thunder are now free to move him as they please, but perhaps better deals can be found this offseason, or potentially on the night of the draft and beyond.

Should Oklahoma City look to the trade market this season, there are a few names that could be made available on the trade market and would make sense for the Thunder.

Golden State Warriors’ former 3rd overall pick James Wiseman is one of them. The Warriors currently boast a luxury tax bill north of 40 million, one they might want to trim, and the 7-footer has spent more time in the G League than with the team that drafted him this season. If the Thunder can get their hands on Wiseman, he would represent a minimal-risk, high-upside gamble that could vastly improve their front-court.

Other names that could be available for the right price that the Thunder could consider are Saddiq Bey, John Collins, and PJ Washington.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Thunder are projected to have somewhere between 30 and 40 million dollars in cap space next year, depending on what happens in offseason. During Presti’s end-of-season media availability in 2022, the general manager commented on the Thunder's free agency plans, “We know 23 is where a lot of things come off the books and we’ll have more flexibility and we might dabble in that a little bit more at the point.” 

Could the free agent market be a place to add talent sooner than later?

If the Thunder do plan on “dabbling” in the free agent market this summer, it is likely that they will target players that will, age-wise, fit alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and the second youngest roster in NBA history. A few names that might fit that bill are Jaxson Hayes, Naz Reid, Cam Reddish, and Myles Turner.

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Dustin McLaughlin
DUSTIN MCLAUGHLIN

Dustin has followed the Oklahoma City Thunder since their inception in 2008, and the NBA since the early 2000s. He's been scouting NBA prospects for 4 years and running.

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