Could the OKC Thunder Finish as a Top Four Seed?

The Thunder surpassed expectations by a wide margin last season and has the chance to do so again.

The Oklahoma City Thunder took the league by surprise with a play-in appearance last season, and they could have another substantial rise this season.

The Thunder finished with 40 wins last season, a 16-win improvement over their previous season. While repeating that success with a jump to 56 wins is unrealistic, the Thunder’s ceiling is as high as almost anyone’s in the West.

In a recent podcast clip, JJ Redick discussed the Thunder’s ceiling this season with Nekias Duncan and Steve Jones Jr. They concluded that the Thunder could finish in the top six or even have home-court advantage in a first-round series.

A jump from the 10th seed to a top-four team in the West is monumental, but the Thunder has the opportunity to make it happen. To take that leap, the Thunder needs to improve from being in the middle of the pack on both ends.

Last season, Oklahoma City finished with the league’s 13th-best offense and 15th-best defense. As mentioned in the podcast, shooting will be a vital factor in Oklahoma City’s quest to finish with one of the best offenses.

Last season, the Thunder shot 35.6% from 3-point range and finished in the bottom half of the league in that category. The Thunder needs their stars to take steps forward as shooters to make a sizeable improvement.

Of the four players in the Thunder’s projected starting lineup who played last season, none shot better than the team’s average. Those players each finished in the top six in 3-point attempts on the Thunder last season, with Luguentz Dort leading the way at 5.5 attempts on just 33% shooting.

The addition of Davis Bertans should help with shooting but is not the entire solution. Still, any improvement will help as teams focus on the Thunder more this season.

That could hurt the Thunder’s style of defense. The Thunder focuses on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition for easy baskets.

Opposing teams will likely focus more on taking care of the ball when they play the Thunder this season. Still, any major adjustments from opponents are unlikely to come until the postseason.

While the surprise factor is gone for Oklahoma City, it may no longer need to catch teams off guard. Oklahoma City’s talent is enough for it to finish near the top of the Western Conference standings if everything goes right.

As crucial as adding Chet Holmgren is, the Thunder already has high-level talent and solid depth. While shooting may not be the best part of Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey or Williams’ games, they all have impressive skill sets.

Those top four pieces will be enough for Oklahoma City to win games throughout the regular season. In a tight Western Conference, winning enough games to finish in the top four will be challenging, but the Thunder has the ability to be in that hunt.

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