Despite Being Second in Odds, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP Case Seems Like a Long Shot

Nikola Jokic is building a big lead in the MVP race despite how solid Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been all season long.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a top-three player in the NBA this season, there’s no doubt about it. He is having one of the best individual seasons in Thunder franchise history — and maybe the best, considering what you value in a player. With the current stats he’s putting up, it would be good enough to win the MVP award in most of the last 20 seasons. Battling with generational talent isn’t always fair, but that’s just the current state of the NBA.

Gilgeous-Alexander is penciled in for another All-NBA First Team honor and his name is even being thrown around in the All-Defense team conversation. He’s been a legitimate two-way force that hasn’t slowed down for a second.

Yet still, former MVP Nikola Jokic is gaining ground in the Most Valuable Player race. It’s nothing against what Gilgeous-Alexander has done, but a testament to how dominant Jokic continues to be.

According to Basketball Reference, Jokic sits in a clear lead at the top with a 47.3% chance to win the MVP award. Gilgeous-Alexander is in second place at 16.8%, slightly ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo at 13.7%. To put into perspective how tough the MVP race is this season, Luka Doncic is averaging 34.5 points, 9.7 assists, and 8.9 rebounds and is in fourth place.

2023-2024 NBA MVP Odds:

47.3% - Nikola Jokić (DEN)
16.8% - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
13.7% - Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
11.5% - Luka Dončić (DAL)
4.3% - Jayson Tatum (BOS)

All MVP Odds: https://t.co/KNvKvchyhp

— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) March 3, 2024

Jokic is averaging 25.9 points, 12.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists on 58.1% shooting. He’s upped his effort on the defensive end and has Denver playing great basketball. The Nuggets are certainly contenders once again:

All hope is not lost for Gilgeous-Alexander, though. Despite Jokic’s commanding lead, the season is far from over. Oklahoma City has a light schedule over the last two months, and streaking to first place in the Western Conference will SGA spurs up eye-popping numbers could change things. It’s Jokic’s to lose at this point, but Gilgeous-Alexander has a good of a chance as anyone left in the pack.

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