How Sustainable is Aaron Wiggins’ Perimeter Shooting Efficiency?

Aaron Wiggins shot the lights out from downtown last season. While he might not ever match that percentage again, his shot selectivity ensures a relatively high floor.

Feb 4, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Aaron Wiggins (21) celebrates after scoring a three-point basket against the Toronto Raptors during overtime at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Aaron Wiggins experienced a significant shooting breakout in his third NBA season, as his 49.2% 3-point percentage was the highest among all players who attempted at least 100 triples. His steady improvement from deep since the Thunder selected him with the No. 55 overall pick in 2021 was one key reason the franchise gave him a five-year, $45 million extension this offseason.

Wiggins' exact rotation role moving forward remains murky despite securing that long-term deal in Oklahoma City. He has seen his minutes shrink from 24.2 per game his rookie year to 15.7 per game last season despite being much more impactful on a rate basis; Jalen Williams joining and boosting the team as the primary wing and widespread internal development are some uncontrollable factors that have diminished his playing time.

One straightforward way for Wiggins to play more consistent minutes is by proving last season's 3-point output was not a fluke, either by increasing his volume or recording a percentage around 40%. He is a very selective shooter, taking the vast majority of his threes on open set shots, so he is more likely to put together more high-percentage seasons than rack up total triples.

Wiggins excelled on just about every 3-point shot type in the 2023-24 season, highlighted by his wing prowess regardless of any shot contest.

3-Point Type	Accuracy	Percentage
Catch-and-shoot, open, wing	24-for-49	49.0%
Catch-and-shoot, open, corner	16-for-33	48.5%
Catch-and-shoot, contested, wing	13-for-29	44.8%
Catch-and-shoot, contested, corner	3-for-13	23.1%
Catch-and-shoot, open, top of the key	4-for-8	50.0%
Pull-up, open, wing	3-for-4	75.0%
Pull-up, contested, wing	2-for-3	66.7%
Pull-up, contested, top of the key	1-for-1	100.0%
Catch-and-shoot, contested, top of the key	0-for-1	0.0%

Wiggins struggles shooting movement 3-pointers, even open ones because his normal shot mechanics and balance become unpredictable. Mark Daigneault does not run floppy or pindown screen plays for him, à la JJ Redick and Klay Thompson, instead placing him on the weak side of the floor and letting the Thunder's primary playmakers do what they do best. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander often attracts help defense inside the arc, so short passes to open teammates like Wiggins are right in his wheelhouse. Jalen Williams is a more accurate passer over longer distances, so defenders cannot wall off his drives without giving up quality looks to perimeter shooters.

Although great offensive creators deserve credit for these preferable shots, Wiggins is a smart off-ball player within the current Thunder system. He effectively creates open looks for himself, from backing out of cuts to more commonly relocating toward favorable passing spots.
He also does not waste those open opportunities: about 90% of his 3-point attempts during the regular season came within two seconds of touching the ball, which increased to all 20 playoff attempts.

As long as Wiggins continues to prioritize and shoot open, stationary, catch-and-shoot 3-pointers from his most comfortable court zones, he will be an above-average outside shooter for years to come.

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