Looking Into 2024-25 OKC Thunder's Scoring Profile, Part Three: 3-Point Scoring

Oklahoma City remains a very selective outside shooting team, but their results have not remained consistent with last season's league-leading percentage.

Nov 11, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) shoots a 3-point basket as LA Clippers guard James Harden (1) defends during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Part One in this series highlights the Oklahoma City Thunder's four potent rim-scoring threats: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. They contribute quality offense on consistent volume near the basket through dribble penetration, touch and verticality.

Part Two in this series examines how Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams utilize their mid-range games to give the Thunder a more spread-out shot distribution. Gilgeous-Alexander's 2-point efficiency does not change much regardless of the closest defender's distance, while Williams is more consistent on open looks.

Good modern-day offenses rely on a consistent dosage of 3-point volume because each make from deep is worth 50% more points than any field goal inside the arc. This season, Oklahoma City is shooting 24.2% of their total field goals from downtown (15th in NBA), making 34.4% (20th in NBA) of those attempts. The team has combined for 5.6 more 3-point attempts per game than last season with a 4.5% decrease from their league-leading percentage.

The haphazard efficiency through 16 games raises personnel questions, as the Thunder remain the most selective outside shooting team in the league. Over 95% of team 3-point attempts have been open or wide open, with a majority falling into the latter category. Oklahoma City is juxtaposing the second-most wide-open 3-point volume with the fourth-worst wide-open efficiency — the most indicative reason team effective field-goal percentage has fallen 4.2% from last year.

Closest Defender	Team 3FGA Per Game	Team 3FG%
0-2 Feet (Very Tight)	0.0	N/A
2-4 Feet (Tight)	1.7 (28th in NBA)	18.5% (27th in NBA)
4-6 Feet (Open)	13.3 (18th in NBA)	35.7% (11th in NBA)
6+ Feet (Wide Open)	24.8 (2nd in NBA)	34.8% (27th in NBA)

Three Thunder players have shot above 40% from deep this season — Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins and Luguentz Dort — compared to eight 2023-24 players. Wiggins has attempted about 3.8 triples per game, converting 42.6% of them, following a scorching 49.2% season on more limited volume. Dort's 40.2% percentage so far has reinforced his annual shooting improvement, as he is taking a higher distribution of threes (66.2% 3-point Attempt Rate) than ever before.

Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Isaiah Joe are all attempting at least five 3-pointers per game this season with worse efficiency than last year. Gilgeous-Alexander's percentage has decreased by about one percent on the highest volume of his career — with one key caveat. He has attempted seven or more triples in seven of 16 games, and three or fewer threes in six games. Gilgeous-Alexander has poured in 11 of his 27 (40.7%) pull-up 3-pointers and nine of his 31 (29.0%) step-back triples.

This season, Cason Wallace, Ousmane Dieng and Alex Caruso have each shot below 30% from deep with at least 35 attempts. Dieng has shot 27.5% on 204 career 3-pointers to account for his unsurprising percentage. Wallace and Caruso, however, shot above 40% on triples last year and primarily attempt wide-open looks — they have combined for 14-for-59 (23.7%) shooting on wide-open threes this season, compared to 160-for-358 (44.7%) wide-open 3-point shooting last season.

Small sample sizes — in this case, 16 out of 82 regular season games — can still reveal important information about a team's cumulative and individual shooting habits. The Thunder's rim, mid-range and 3-point distribution are unlikely to change much from their current rates. One clear takeaway from all three shot areas: Oklahoma City has significant room for an efficiency improvement.

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