Numbers Talk: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Should Shoot More Threes

NBA teams are attempting more threes than ever, leading to a league-wide offensive surge. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already mastered scoring inside the arc, so he should extend his range to keep up with the times.

Dec 21, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots a three-point basket as LA Clippers guard James Harden (1) defends during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has established himself as one of the NBA's premier scorers during the last two seasons. He averaged 42.0 points per 100 possessions in the 2022-23 season, ranking fifth among qualified players, and followed that up with 42.4 points per 100 last year which only Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic surpassed.

More important than that production jump, though, was his corresponding efficiency: Gilgeous-Alexander raised his true shooting percentage by a full percentage point from 2023 to 2024, all the way up to 63.6%.

One reason Gilgeous-Alexander is so efficient, especially as a guard, is his ability to get to the rim. His 23.3 drives per game during the regular season led the league, and he upped that volume to a ridiculous 26.9 per game in the playoffs. All that driving enables consistent looks down low, a crucial component of the Thunder superstar's scoring package.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's shot chart in the 2023-24 NBA season, including playoffs / Basketball-Reference

Gilgeous-Alexander made 302 of his 420 rim attempts across the regular season and playoffs, good for a blistering 1.44 points per shot. Another benefit from his relentless driving is an abundance of free throws, as interior defenders are much more inclined to prevent quality looks. He has taken more than 10 free throws per 100 possessions dating back to the 2021-22 season, peaking at 14.5/100 in 2022-23. While that many attempts would not be ideal if Gilgeous-Alexander mirrored Shaquille O'Neal or Wilt Chamberlain, his output from the stripe is much closer to Ray Allen and Reggie Miller. Gilgeous-Alexander's 87.4 FT% last season essentially guaranteed him and the Thunder 1.75 points every time he went to the line.

An elite scorer producing well on the two most efficient shot types in basketball is not a surprise whatsoever. His three-point volume comes into the equation when juxtaposed with his lethal mid-range game, as they are jump shots from various distances. Some of those aforementioned drives lead to pull-ups inside the arc, as he uses his core strength, deceleration and an array of moves to create just about any shot he wants.

Gilgeous-Alexander's most efficient mid-range zone last season was between 10 and 16 feet, where he shot 53.9% on an 82.2% unassisted rate. This was the ninth-highest percentage among players who attempted at least 10% of their total field goals from that range. In fact, 56.7% of Gilgeous-Alexander's field goal attempts last season were mid-range shots, a number that affirms his all-around reputation. It should also inspire at least some shot selection changes due to simple math.

He shot 306 3-pointers in 85 cumulative games last season and made 36.3% of them. That's right: he generated more points per shot from beyond the arc (1.09) than his most productive mid-range zone (1.08). His 985 total mid-range attempts resulted in 494 makes, or exactly 1.00 points per shot. One of the NBA's best interior scorers would benefit from taking more outside shots, so the entire league trending that way was always inevitable. The only remaining question is sustainability, or in other words, him keeping or even increasing that three-point percentage with more volume.

More than 70% of Gilgeous-Alexander's 2023-24 3-point attempts were pull-ups, and he shot a slightly higher percentage on those attempts than his catch-and-shoot threes. That fact is crucial because an offensive initiator like him does not necessarily rely on his teammates' playmaking to score in bunches.

Gilgeous-Alexander took a majority of those pull-ups above the break because his signature outside shot is the step-back; he made 37.8% of 135 attempts during the regular season and a sizzling 58.3% of 24 in the playoffs. He frequently relied on two step-back approaches, either taking a left-handed pound dribble while moving backward or performing a left-to-right between-the-legs dribble to create space. These shots are sustainable moving forward for multiple reasons: he is skilled and long enough to prevent good contests, and his driving potency deters defenders from overplaying him on the perimeter.

Gilgeous-Alexander is relentless at the rim, a mid-range maestro and a stripe savant. He just needs more attempts to become an outside overlord, and therefore a true three-level scorer. The math and his existing skill level suggest he could get there in 2024-25.

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