OKC Thunder Could Struggle to Maintain Historic Defense

The Thunder's defense has been the best in the league, but too many factors are in play to hit a historic threshold.

Nov 2, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; LA Clippers guard James Harden (1) looks to pass against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) during the first half at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images / Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Oklahoma City has had the league’s best defense this season, but reaching historic levels is nearly impossible.

This season, the Thunder have followed a 57-win campaign with an 8-1 start. As their offense is still coming along, the Thunder have possessed a defensive rating of 97.3, easily the best in the league.

Last season, the Minnesota Timberwolves held the title of the league’s best defense. They had a defensive rating of 108.4, which puts in perspective how impressive Oklahoma City’s start has been.

No team has had a defensive rating below 105 since the 2019-20 campaign when the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors accomplished the feat. Unsurprisingly, those teams were the top seeds in the East behind their dominant defenses.

The most recent team to finish with a defensive rating in double figures was the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs, at 98.2. That team won 67 games, including a 40-1 record on its home court.

Beyond the point that a defensive rating under 100 has been nearly impossible in the past decade, those same factors are likely to eventually come into play for Oklahoma City. Perhaps the most glaring factor will be the 3-point line. 

This season, Thunder opponents have shot a league-worst 30.9% from beyond the arc. Most importantly, opponents have shot only 32.3% on wide-open 3-point attempts. Last season, teams shot 36.1% and 38% on those looks, respectively.

Along with teams likely making those shots at some point, the Thunder’s defense has benefitted from continuity thus far. Although Alex Caruso and rookies have been inserted into the lineup, those guys have perfectly fit the already existing identity.

As Isaiah Hartenstein returns from his injury, there is sure to be a learning curve as the team learns how to play with a more traditional big man. Any dropoff should be minimal and Hartenstein has proven himself to be a good defender, but there are sure to be ebbs and flows when he returns.

The Thunder’s impressive defensive rating has passed the eye test, and they have a good shot at finishing as the NBA’s top defense. But a defensive rating under 100 might be too difficult a feat, even for the young Thunder.

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