Determining Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Path to 2024-25 MVP

Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring capabilities and the Thunder team quality will put him back into the MVP conversation.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is pictured during the Thunder media day at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. / NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 2023-24 Thunder were defined by defense, spearheaded by relentless rim protector Chet Holmgren, and improvement, especially from two-way forward Jalen Williams. Still, there is zero doubt that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the team's best and most impactful player, which is why he is Oklahoma City's likeliest player to win an award.

He finished as the runner-up in last year's Most Valuable Player voting to Nikola Jokic, as the dominant Denver center averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and nine assists per game on ludicrous efficiency for a first option. Those counting stats speak for themselves, and Jokic added to his case with an outstanding team record, individual net rating and advanced impact metrics — while missing only three out of 82 regular season games.

Gilgeous-Alexander also had a worthy case to win. He averaged 30.1 points per game on a 63.6 true shooting percentage, proving his 2022-23 scoring output was legit rather than an aberration, with 5.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. He led the league with 150 total steals. Oklahoma City won 57 games and finished with the Western Conference's No. 1 seed thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander's efforts, blowing away everyone's expectations.

The Thunder superstar's current odds to win the most prestigious individual award this season are between +400 and +500 on five prominent sportsbooks — an implied 16.7-20% chance. (DISCLAIMER: BET AT YOUR OWN RISK.) He trails just behind Jokic and Mavericks do-it-all maestro Luka Doncic, whose sexy counting stats and teammate empowerment put him in the conversation every year.

Most Valuable Player winners in the last decade have depended on an excellent team record, a pristine individual net rating, and consistent scoring.

Season	Winner	Team Record	Individual Net Rating	Notable Statistics
2014-15	Stephen Curry, Warriors	67-15	+16.3	35.5 PTS/100, 6.8 LEBRON, 11.0 RAPTOR
2015-16	Stephen Curry, Warriors	73-9	+17.7	42.5 PTS/100, 66.9 TS%, 11.9 BPM, 12.5 RAPTOR
2016-17	Russell Westbrook, Thunder	47-35	+4.5	44.8 PTS/100, 57.3 AST%, 11.1 BPM, 6.8 RAPM
2017-18	James Harden, Rockets	65-17	+10.0	42.3 PTS/100, 6.3 LEBRON, 10.1 RAPTOR
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks	60-22	+12.5	39.3 PTS/100, .292 WS/48, 7.8 LEBRON
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks	56-17	+15.4	44.2 PTS/100, 11.5 BPM, 9.0 LEBRON
2020-21	Nikola Jokic, Nuggets	47-25	+7.7	37.7 PTS/100, .301 WS/48, 12.1 BPM, 6.8 LEBRON
2021-22	Nikola Jokic, Nuggets	48-34	+8.4	39.7 PTS/100, 13.7 BPM, 7.8 LEBRON, 14.6 RAPTOR
2022-23	Joel Embiid, 76ers	54-28	+8.8	47.4 PTS/100, 65.5 TS%, 5.9 LEBRON, 6.4 DPM
2023-24	Nikola Jokic, Nuggets	57-25	+11.8	37.8 PTS/100, 17.0 WS, 13.2 BPM, 7.0 DPM

Seven of the previous 10 winners finished with at least 50 regular season wins, with six reaching at least 55 wins. The Thunder won 57 games last season and improved their roster on paper, so Gilgeous-Alexander will likely check off this box again this season. Oklahoma City had an +11.9 net rating with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor last year, which fits right into the previous winners. His individual brilliance has translated into lots of team success.

Gilgeous-Alexander's bread-and-butter is scoring the basketball, so this category is essentially signed, sealed and delivered already. He averaged 42.4 points per 100 possessions last season, and five Most Valuable Player winners in the last decade recorded fewer than 40 points per 100.

A repeat of last season's performance would place Gilgeous-Alexander right back into the conversation, but it might not be enough to win with Jokic, Doncic and more superstars ready to show out. The Oklahoma City guard must raise his team's record even more, improve his scoring output and efficiency, average bigger counting statistics, and become more impactful to take home Most Valuable Player — extremely high standards for an extremely high-caliber player.

If there is anyone in the NBA who can live up to those expectations, it is Gilgeous-Alexander.

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