Could the OKC Thunder be a Potential Top-Four Seed in the Western Conference?

With the improvement from its young core and the addition of Chet Holmgren, the Oklahoma City Thunder could be ready for a giant leap this season.

The last NBA season was a huge step forward for the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

After two previous seasons of rebuilding without winning being the team's main priority, the Thunder improved by 16 wins and made the Play-In Tournament. Although Oklahoma City fell to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the game for the 8th seed, even making it to the Thunder was a massive success. 

Now, with the addition of Chet Holmgren and improvement of its young core, Oklahoma City has the highest season expectations since the Russell Westbrook era. 

On The Bill Simmons Podcast, Simmons said he has the Thunder as "fourth in the West right now." 

Becoming a top-four seed after not even making the playoffs in the previous season would be a gigantic leap for Oklahoma City, but there is a slight possibility of it coming to fruition. 

The Thunder have one of the 10 best players in the entire NBA in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which already gives it an advantage to most other teams. After averaging over 30 points per game last season, the superstar guard is poised to have another MVP campaign. 

The supporting cast – headed by the likes of Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams – are at the stages of their careers where they have the potential to make significant improvements in their games.  

Giddey is heading into his third year in the NBA this season, and after an improved sophomore season and impressive run in the 2023 NBA World Cup, all signs show for another leap. The guard showed more confidence in his ability to score the basketball, which was his biggest weakness entering the league. If Giddey could reach close to 20 points per game while keeping his assists numbers, his impact on the Thunder would be significant.

Heading into his sophomore year, Williams also has the potential to be a 20-point per game scorer this season. The forward finished top-3 in Rookie of the Year voting averaging 14.1 points per game, playing higher than his preseason expectations. A six-point increase for Williams is not unlikely, especially with how efficient he shot the ball last season. 

Likely the biggest reason for the Thunder to be a top-4 seed is through the play of rookie Chet Holmgren. Oklahoma City has lacked a true starting center since the departure of Steven Adams, playing without a defensive anchor in the paint and instead using small-ball lineups.

Holmgren will be a franchise cornerstone at the center position for Oklahoma City, providing elite defense and a highly-skilled offensive game. If he can stay healthy for most of the season, Holmgren's impact could give the Thunder several additional wins. 

Even with all of these possibilities, making it in the top-4 of the Western Conference will be a highly difficult task. Teams such as the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns geared up over the offseason and have been considered contenders for multiple seasons, so it will take a lot for Oklahoma City to jump any of these teams in the standings. 

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