Can Jalen Williams Earn 2024-25 Most Improved Player?

Jalen Williams is more than familiar with getting better, but he will need the biggest jump of his young career to win this award.

Jalen Williams is pictured during the Thunder media day at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. / NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jalen Williams has become synonymous with improvement in the last few years. As a Santa Clara junior in the 2021-22 season, he averaged about 18 points, four rebounds and four assists per game on a 60.1 true shooting percentage to land on NBA draft boards. He kept rising from a second-round projection into lottery talks in the months leading up to the draft, where the Thunder selected him at No. 12.

Williams exceeded his draft position throughout his rookie year, averaging the fourth-most points per game, 10th-most rebounds per game, fourth-most assists per game and most steals per game among qualified rookies; he also sustained his exact college true shooting percentage. This production helped boost Oklahoma City to 40 wins and play-in contention.

Last season, Williams made another jump to become the Thunder's second scoring option. He averaged 5.0 more points per game on 3.6 more field-goal attempts per game and shot 7.1% better from behind the 3-point line. He also increased his assist percentage and lowered his turnover percentage on a higher usage rate, reflecting a sizable playmaking improvement. Williams finished fourth in Most Improved Player voting for these efforts, receiving five first-place votes.

With sky-high individual and team expectations, one question for Williams looms large: What will it take to win Most Improved Player?

Five prominent sportsbooks put Williams' current odds between +1400 and +1600, giving him an implied 5.9-6.7% chance to take home the award. (DISCLAIMER: BET AT YOUR OWN RISK.) He trails three players, including front-runner Victor Wembanyama. An important step for evaluating Williams' chances is establishing statistical baselines from the last 10 Most Improved Player winners.

Season	Winner	Improvements From Previous Season
2014-15	Jimmy Butler, Bulls	+6.9 PPG, +0.9 RPG, +0.7 APG, +6.1 TS%, +3.5 BPM
2015-16	CJ McCollum, Trail Blazers	+14.0 PPG, +1.7 RPG, +3.3 APG, +1.0 TS%, +1.9 BPM
2016-17	Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks	+6.0 PPG, +1.1 RPG, +1.1 APG, +3.3 TS%, +5.2 BPM
2017-18	Victor Oladipo, Pacers	+7.2 PPG, +1.7 APG, +1.2 SPG, +4.3 TS%, +6.3 BPM
2018-19	Pascal Siakam, Raptors	+9.6 PPG, +2.4 RPG, +1.1 APG, +7.9 TS%, +1.1 BPM
2019-20	Brandon Ingram, Pelicans	+5.5 PPG, +1.0 RPG, +1.2 APG, +3.2 TS%, +4.1 BPM
2020-21	Julius Randle, Knicks	+4.6 PPG, +0.5 RPG, +2.9 APG, +2.9 TS%, +4.1 BPM
2021-22	Ja Morant, Grizzlies	+8.3 PPG, +1.7 RPG, +0.3 SPG, +3.8 TS%, +6.5 BPM
2022-23	Lauri Markkanen, Jazz	+10.8 PPG, +2.9 RPG, +0.6 APG, +5.8 TS%, +3.4 BPM
2023-24	Tyrese Maxey, 76ers	+5.6 PPG, +0.8 RPG, +2.7 APG, +2.5 BPM, +2.1 VORP

Some clear trends emerge from this data. All Most Improved Players in the last decade scored at least 4.6 more points per game than their prior season. They all increased their box plus-minus and rebounds per game. Nine of these 10 players improved their true shooting percentage, except for last season's winner Tyrese Maxey.

This information is worrying for Williams, as his significant scoring jump from his rookie to sophomore seasons only exceeded 2020-21 Randle among these winners. According to these baselines, he would need to average at least 23.7 points per game and put up a 3.4 box plus-minus next season to even have a chance at the award, ideally improving his 62.1 true shooting percentage as well.

These considerable standards justify Williams' unlikely odds, but he has a path to make that leap happen. One overlooked consequence of the Thunder trading Josh Giddey to the Bulls is an expected role change for Williams. He had a 20.8% usage rate in 1,387 minutes with Giddey, which swelled to 28.5% usage in his 836 non-Giddey minutes. He scored 9.5 more points per 100 possessions without Giddey on a slightly worse true shooting percentage.

Head coach Mark Daigneault staggered Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season, playing at least one of them on the floor for all 48 minutes. With Giddey now gone, Williams will at least be the secondary ball-handler at all times and will handle primary playmaking duties whenever Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes a seat. Last season, he played 46.7% of his non-Gilgeous-Alexander minutes with Giddey. More usage for Williams this year feels inevitable.

Offensive efficiency is more important than ever in the NBA, as the 2023-24 season produced the highest average offensive rating ever. One key reason is increased 3-point volume across the board, which could also spark a Most Improved Player campaign for Williams. He shot 42.7% on 3.4 3-point attempts per game last season.

"I'd like to see (Williams) shoot more 3s," said Daigneault in Oct. 3 training camp media availability. "With how he shoots it and with how he drives it, if he can shoot 3s and force people to go play him a little bit higher, it creates more space for his drives and makes him even more difficult to guard."

Internal improvement, more anticipated usage and coaching faith are all critical factors for a young NBA player's growth. Williams has exemplified the Thunder's methodical rebuild as much as anyone else has, frequently adding to his game and taking pride in being an all-around player. He might not be the Most Improved Player favorite going into next season, but it would be unwise to write him off.

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