OKC Thunder: Jalen Williams is Building a Dark Horse ROTY Case

Jalen Williams has hit a rookie stride that leaves him as a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate.

When watching most rookies perform, there’s often a rookie wall. Opposing teams figure out a rookie's strengths and play that against them. Even no. 1 pick Paolo Banchero has seen that wall happen. However, Jalen Williams hasn’t quite had that happen yet, and it’s even been the opposite. More like what Mark Daigneault explained as a “rookie stride.”

Williams’ rookie season can be drawn back to a very similar Franz Wagner, who was in the Rookie of the Year conversation. He came in as an older prospect, but used that as an advantage with an immediate impact. Williams has shown plenty of flashes as a star player, and has helped bolster the Oklahoma City Thunder into the Play-In Tournament Conversation.

As we have already crossed the mid-way mark of March, Williams is averaging 21.7 points per game on the month while shooting 58.5 percent from the field and 52.4 percent on 3-pointers. Those numbers are borderline All-Star numbers, and he’s doing it on the backend of his rookie year in meaningful games.

While the Rookie of the Year trophy is awarded to the best rookie over the course of the entire season, Williams has taken steps forward each month to continue building a dark horse candidate to bring home the hardware.
Orlando Magic’s Banchero has owned the best odds to win the award since the season began, as he’s averaged over 20 points per game this season and has done so all season.

Now, looking at traditional statistics alone, Banchero has the edge, but more is accounted for when breaking down the award winner. Williams has played more meaningful basketball, which helped Scottie Barnes bring home his Rookie of the Year, as he helped his team to the playoffs. Also, Williams stats may be lower, but so is his usage rate. He doesn’t get the luxury of being the top scoring option on a bad team with the offense running through him.

For example, Banchero’s usage rate is at 27.5 percent, compared to Williams’ 18.1 percent usage rate. For Williams to have such a lower usage rate with such efficiency and contributions to winning basketball, there is a case to be made for him to bring home the Rookie of the Year, though the odds aren’t in his favor.

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