OKC Thunder Outside of Postseason Picture in Latest ESPN Projection

The Thunder are one of the most exciting teams in the NBA, but success is not a guarantee.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected by many to take another leap this season, but the numbers say otherwise.

In Kevin Pelton’s article projecting win totals for every team, the Thunder are projected to fall out of the postseason entirely. Using a combination of box-score, luck-adjusted and games played projections, Pelton laid out win totals for all 30 teams.

The article projects the Thunder to win 39.1 games next season, which is good for the 11th team in the West. The Thunder were the only team from that conference to make the postseason last season that is not projected to make it again this season.

While it is expected that Oklahoma City will take a step forward and make noise in the Western Conference this season, finishing outside of the top 10 is still a possibility. Oklahoma City will be one of the youngest teams in the league again and is adding a potentially significant contributor who has never played an NBA game.

However, concerns about Chet Holmgren’s insertion have little to do with his talent. After missing the entirety of the 2022-23 season with a foot injury, his ability to stay healthy is a question mark heading into the season.

Assuming he can stay healthy, it may take some time for the Thunder to adjust to having a big man like Holmgren after mainly playing small ball for the past couple of seasons. Although Jaylin Williams has given the Thunder a sample of that style, Holmgren is expected to play much more and have a more significant role in those minutes.

Holmgren should be a net positive for the Thunder, but it may not materialize immediately. Aside from the Thunder’s tangible concerns, there is also historical precedent for the Thunder to have an underwhelming season.

Peloton mentioned what Bill James coined as the plexiglass principle for baseball. The plexiglass principle is a regression to the mean, something that teams with success like the Thunder have experienced in the past.

Since 2000, teams that have won between 15 and 17 more games than it did the previous year in an 82-game season have struggled to replicate that success. Those teams have averaged 0.4 fewer wins in the following season.

If that trend holds this season, the Thunder would be projected to win 39.6 games. That mark is almost the same as Pelton’s projection and could be a blow to the Thunder’s hopes of becoming contenders.

As Oklahoma City knows well, numbers are not always correct. In Pelton’s projection last season, he had Oklahoma City finishing 13th in the west with only 26.9 wins.

The Thunder made a surprising postseason run and outperformed that projection by more than 13 wins. This season gives the Thunder an opportunity to prove projections wrong again and make their first playoff appearance since 2020.

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