Breaking Down the OKC Thunder's Playoff Scenarios After 81 Games

The Thunder finish the regular season on Sunday with an abundance of possibilities.

Apr 10, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

The season is almost over, but with one day of basketball left, there are still many scenarios for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

On Friday, the Thunder jumped from third to first in the Western Conference standings, but they needed help to make it happen. The Denver Nuggets blew a 23-point lead in San Antonio to set up a three-way tie at the top of the West, which also includes the Minnesota Timberwolves.

If the three 56-25 teams stay in a three-way tie by either all winning or all losing, nothing changes at the top, and Oklahoma City will remain the No. 1 seed. With a few other potential results, Oklahoma City only somewhat controls its destiny. A win against the Dallas Mavericks guarantees a top-two seed, while a loss means finishing second or third. 

Western Conference No. 1 seed scenarios:

OKC, MIN, DEN all have the same result: 1. OKC 2. MIN 3. DEN

OKC, DEN win, MIN loses: 1. OKC 2. DEN 3. MIN

OKC, MIN win, DEN loses: 1. MIN 2. OKC 3. DEN

OKC wins, MIN, DEN lose: 1. OKC 2. MIN 3. DEN

OKC loses, MIN, DEN win: 1. MIN 2. DEN 3. OKC

OKC, MIN lose, DEN wins: 1. DEN 2. MIN 3. OKC

OKC, DEN lose, MIN wins: 1. MIN 2. OKC 3. DEN

Although the Thunder will find out their seeding on Sunday, a win means they will not know their first-round opponent until later. The play-in tournament being played throughout the week between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs also means the higher the Thunder finish, the less time they will have to gameplan against their first-round opponent. With Friday’s results, the four play-in teams are still not set, but there will be a strong Pacific division presence. 

The Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors will be in the play-in tournament and have an opportunity to move into eighth on Sunday.  Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans will enter Sunday fighting for the final guaranteed playoff spot at sixth in two of the day’s biggest games. The Suns will play in Minnesota, while the Pelicans host the Lakers. 

Given the uncertainty of Oklahoma City’s seeding and who will finish where from 6-10 in the West, the final day of the regular season should feel like a day full of playoff games. 

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